Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf3d24414683142e81b8c2986cd35e86b153342b4e63a8f79d147d5ff59613d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 6c | 2,755$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.49 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 22c | 2,632$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.92 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 1,931$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.84 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…f84fbacked Under | 78c | 1,265$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.33 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 12c | 1,012$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 14c | 989.57$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 23c | 894.52$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.43 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…cf5fbacked Under | 78c | 299.29$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 79c | 296.22$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 232.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…8626backed Over | 24c | 198.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…f305backed Over | 24c | 197.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Under | 78c | 149$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa14…757ebacked Under | 78c | 139.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…191abacked Over | 23c | 124.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4768backed Over | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 144 | 31.9%46 W · 98 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…c1d5backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Under | 77c | 99.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 78c | 94.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 78c | 88.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 78c | 77.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 22c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 277 | 52.3%145 W · 132 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 23c | 74.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…41ddbacked Under | 78c | 50.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 22c | 47.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3708…7c65backed Under | 78c | 31.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…8454backed Under | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…c285backed Under | 78c | 21.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…0144backed Under | 78c | 20.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.