TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chelsea FCof Manchester United FC, Chelsea FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,385
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,807

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,385 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc699…7961backed Manchester United FC15c9,635$1,423 inLost-$1,423.312532.8%41 W · 84 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Manchester United FC13c2,180$283 inLost-$283.3919426.3%51 W · 143 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Manchester United FC14c1,069$153 inLost-$152.682,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ab…178dbacked Manchester United FC10c678$68 inLost-$67.81513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid+100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Manchester United FC17c463.21$77 inLost-$76.9313132.1%42 W · 89 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Manchester United FC21c454.51$95 inLost-$95.269131.9%29 W · 62 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Manchester United FC14c338.71$47 inLost-$47.426627.3%18 W · 48 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11be…7712backed Manchester United FC14c338.71$47 inLost-$47.42911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-61.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Manchester United FC16c296.75$47 inLost-$47.4828824.7%71 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe36e…ad3abacked Manchester United FC13c218.58$28 inLost-$28.423633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Manchester United FC13c215.82$28 inLost-$28.068345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Chelsea FC79c204.92$162 inWon+$43.1461143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Manchester United FC15c199.03$30 inLost-$29.8510221.6%22 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce27…8a7dbacked Manchester United FC13c182.27$24 inLost-$23.693129%9 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62cc…f56fbacked Manchester United FC14c168.61$24 inLost-$23.614047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfef7…8c9dbacked Manchester United FC29c149.75$44 inLost-$44.15812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-79.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Manchester United FC16c147.67$24 inLost-$24.0751516.1%83 W · 432 L-49.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Manchester United FC13c146.28$19 inLost-$18.9611636.2%42 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b57…84ebbacked Manchester United FC13c116.53$15 inLost-$15.156432.8%21 W · 43 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9759…cb52backed Manchester United FC12c100$12 inLost-$121717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc8…d12ebacked Chelsea FC77c25.62$20 inWon+$5.89560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd0…c747backed Chelsea FC79c25.06$20 inWon+$5.316100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ba…ce43backed Chelsea FC77c19.21$15 inWon+$4.42757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.