Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14757f5a0c7dd98c3979af3683d6ba789343b352a3491fa7455b7507c15f0e3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 69c | 11,863$8,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,180.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 5,521$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,806.97 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 4,190$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.66 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 55c | 2,016$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.82 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 45c | 1,073$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.35 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 47c | 1,030$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.9 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 53c | 649.08$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.22 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 28c | 575.12$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.21 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 32c | 573.1$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.3 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 32c | 525.85$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.88 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 31c | 479.3$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.72 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 31c | 460.96$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.38 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 347.48$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.71 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 237.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 68c | 237.05$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.19 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 33c | 200.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…5a94backed Under | 48c | 184.12$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 183.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 33c | 175$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Over | 55c | 156.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 37c | 130.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Over | 55c | 126.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 33c | 99.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 95.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Over | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 31c | 83.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 82.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 62c | 78.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 66c | 77.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 53c | 71.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Under | 31c | 66.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 64.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…3965backed Under | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 45c | 60.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Under | 31c | 55.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 57c | 52.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 30c | 44.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 45c | 43.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 34c | 39.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 64c | 38.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 40c | 38.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 53c | 25.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 47c | 22.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Over | 53c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Over | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5this page
- Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.