Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98939eefed55be2c5e374ddeaf6df919dcdb2e38450a86c1256e8a04d6d849b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 32c | 3,725$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 68c | 1,835$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.2 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 1,521$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.33 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…a7ebbacked Under | 52c | 1,139$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 34c | 1,132$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.14 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 21c | 619.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 45c | 569.47$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.06 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 517.93$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 55c | 350.79$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.66 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 27c | 350$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 31c | 339.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 33c | 293.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 69c | 279.87$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 69c | 258.04$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 248.81$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 246.84$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 68c | 180$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 132.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 66c | 116.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 69c | 113.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 102.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 50c | 98.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 68c | 71.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 68c | 65.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Over | 36c | 63.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 29c | 51.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 38c | 51.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 64c | 45.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 68c | 42.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 62c | 40.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 68c | 32.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 72c | 24.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 43c | 24.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 48c | 22.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 67c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 68c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5this page
- Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.