Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28e2ffe920689e2f0e9ed4c337c84f39f22a0a14f4c5aeb1301d8554da6e1a45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 1c | 20,514$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,826$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 14c | 1,300$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.42 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 47c | 1,212$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…1174backed Yes | 8c | 1,050$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 80c | 560.1$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 58c | 545.73$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.8 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 68c | 470.82$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.87 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 55c | 331.43$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.3 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 20c | 275.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 28c | 264.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 24c | 250.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…10eabacked Yes | 42c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 68c | 164.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 74c | 159.47$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 15c | 158.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 66c | 156.87$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked Yes | 54c | 154.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 27c | 154.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 25c | 140.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 134.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 26c | 129.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 76c | 120.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 119.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 117.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 54c | 102.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 96.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed No | 75c | 92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 88.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…7c4bbacked Yes | 39c | 88.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…bd3cbacked Yes | 31c | 78.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 76.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 72.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 36c | 66.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…709ebacked Yes | 20c | 66.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 31c | 65.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 29c | 63.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Yes | 23c | 62.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 31c | 51.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 28c | 50.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 38c | 44.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1313backed Yes | 40c | 44.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 66c | 44.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 51c | 38.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 29c | 36.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed Yes | 33c | 34.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 42c | 33.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed No | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 74c | 27.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 67c | 24.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbd…0351backed No | 56c | 24.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…27b8backed Yes | 59c | 17.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 67c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed No | 77c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.