TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on February 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3c3…bdbbbacked No0c4,537$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No1c3,747$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3425362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No1c2,851$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.294,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed Yes10c2,365$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,136.7413122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c18…5395backed Yes9c2,284$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+461.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes3c1,299$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.6659021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes5c1,135$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.3732818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes1c1,120$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.361,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes13c983.91$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.151,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe588…c036backed Yes23c944.32$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.32520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes5c942.42$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.63769.2%7 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed Yes36c861.7$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.4914719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c850.38$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc7e8…37b4backed Yes6c809.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.06812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+102.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c706.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.0139810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7769…9991backed Yes4c678.3$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.791118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick7cpaid+232.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3792…0f23backed Yes7c596.38$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.38540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+236.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…1480backed Yes12c587.07$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.0410518.1%19 W · 86 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes38c537.16$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes5c532$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.333531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No37c500$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes11c490.28$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.5616934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes41c487.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.22740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes14c480.38$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.1234618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e90…6303backed No13c422.12$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf5a…9321backed No48c396.19$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.29922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes21c390.29$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.491,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes11c371.07$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.4332548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes8c366.74$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.6852533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fda…8405backed Yes3c338.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick2cpaid+927.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef65…d64fbacked Yes7c316.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.6719171.7%137 W · 54 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes70c304.01$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.561,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed No71c300$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.128737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c299.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.662,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes4c286.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.6121448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6483…3f18backed Yes18c281.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.561457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No9c260.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0734617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1973…4121backed Yes9c256.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.461729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes8c251.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.3311930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7050…3af2backed Yes4c250$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab24…31c4backed Yes13c249.39$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.773956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes4c245.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.9225447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e7f…c287backed Yes8c236.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.536944.9%31 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes9c217.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.753850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes6c200$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.3339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…bd3cbacked Yes10c195.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.91812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid+25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ec…a818backed Yes8c193.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.451631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb53…dd35backed Yes12c189.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+760.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes6c188.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.955530.9%17 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes11c187.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.793540%14 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes8c185.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.9130664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e0…8761backed Yes48c181.72$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.711650%8 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e24…24fbbacked No77c179.45$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.531428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9417…28a3backed Yes24c162.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.58139.5%32 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe66e…a0bbbacked Yes8c157$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+508.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ace…e67fbacked Yes10c148.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.081656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+72.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes30c131.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3145127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes75c120.51$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4957659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa5…797bbacked Yes14c94.65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+264%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe6…a9e6backed Yes17c90.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.661330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe5…d852backed Yes14c90.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.43915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Yes13c88.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.971442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+48%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d8c…0977backed Yes29c81.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.886315.9%10 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No67c77.02$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No55c72.1$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.544553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes52c72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.339048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5d…76b0backed No51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes77c61.31$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3146733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c53.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5515818.4%29 W · 129 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes39c52.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9316548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes57c52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.363627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes29c49.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.082532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c14…1f3fbacked Yes57c44.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e5…86f4backed No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.124362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3692…2136backed No57c34.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.842142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-38.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes50c32.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.330428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No69c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2314359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe0…192abacked No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.45850%4 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-34.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb966…84d5backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.629778.4%76 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked No56c17.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked No66c15.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed No66c15.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.