Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14e258d3c133c53612269881e2dd85329c3c3015f64c199cf57fc1404769f7e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Over | 75c | 1,313$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.33 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 6c | 1,074$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 1,002$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.83 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 25c | 731.06$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.76 | 1,244 | 49.4%615 W · 629 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 25c | 540.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 1,690 | 34.9%589 W · 1,101 L | -33.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 151 | 37.7%57 W · 94 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 77c | 493.1$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 75c | 394$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 25c | 181.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 560 | 51.4%288 W · 272 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 26c | 180.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 137.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 26c | 99.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,044 | 33.3%348 W · 696 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 24c | 95.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…205ebacked Over | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…26d7backed Over | 75c | 65.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 25c | 59.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 75c | 45.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 26c | 42.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…a5dabacked Over | 75c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 74c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 73c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 810 | 53.6%434 W · 376 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.