TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Sunderland AFCof Aston Villa FC, Sunderland AFC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,599
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,599 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc699…7961backed Aston Villa FC14c6,840$948 inLost-$948.3212532.8%41 W · 84 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Aston Villa FC16c3,242$527 inLost-$527.022,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Aston Villa FC9c2,630$240 inLost-$239.994,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Aston Villa FC13c1,043$136 inLost-$135.5419426.3%51 W · 143 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Aston Villa FC13c276.5$36 inLost-$35.941,01233.2%336 W · 676 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…e0c1backed Aston Villa FC36c267.11$96 inLost-$96.161533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe461…2a69backed Aston Villa FC24c198.83$48 inLost-$47.72837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b08…aaf4backed Aston Villa FC13c162.88$21 inLost-$21.175332.1%17 W · 36 L-8.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-41.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.