TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on February 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,253 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes57c509.88$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.282,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes32c476.28$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.382740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes39c461.4$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.683850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2767…dac8backed Yes15c400$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes38c348.19$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.541,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd21c…8628backed No60c297.5$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.784060%24 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes70c284.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0525362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa00d…6ffdbacked Yes20c281.51$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.05387.9%3 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes70c200.48$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8857659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c178.15$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No62c172.06$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4961760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes44c162.12$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.262,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c161.86$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.818,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e24…24fbbacked Yes18c161.12$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.831428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes18c141.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.61,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ef…9f35backed Yes11c139.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.07933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+64.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d3…a2fdbacked Yes36c138.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.884235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes40c136.28$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3816465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes17c135.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.6655919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0518…6876backed No48c134.24$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.584346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes49c128.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.54769.2%7 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes17c114.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f33…8da9backed Yes15c111.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.799944.4%44 W · 55 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd4fc…c6aabacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303246.9%15 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+56.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x329e…2eafbacked Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872532%8 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes46c98.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4523633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes38c93.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.422,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes43c92.3$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.311930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f6…af9dbacked No48c89.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf587…f3e0backed Yes43c85.65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.71875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No58c85.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5710246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No60c84.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.717243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x988e…bd82backed Yes25c70.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2812339%48 W · 75 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No71c69.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.71,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No20c69.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.782,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed Yes51c69.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.167552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No70c68.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3234457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c67.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.163,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a8…cca6backed Yes23c65.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc4…0be2backed Yes43c65.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc76a…416ebacked Yes40c62.49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.52528%7 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa1…3881backed Yes26c60.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.36517.8%4 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a38…c90abacked No63c57.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.37580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe55…f943backed Yes35c57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.03728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes41c55.96$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.127,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No31c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0539810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes34c54.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.12147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6483…3f18backed Yes38c54.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.521457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffd…f213backed No56c50.61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.38641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1714338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No75c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.512073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No69c48.24$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4211855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes34c44.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5334651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cab…d8cebacked Yes24c41.46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.461330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes37c41.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9230428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94c8…b47ebacked No56c41.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.921637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed No67c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.84963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2f4…1c9cbacked No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.31per pick50cpaid-72.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa916…8002backed Yes48c39.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0967…0c60backed No72c38.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0318860.1%113 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No57c38.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2731567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ec…a818backed Yes39c38.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.461631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe45…f9a7backed Yes41c36.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.831060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeee…7c09backed Yes55c36.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.369351.6%48 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed No77c34.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.628329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd045…6521backed Yes57c33.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea50…4929backed No62c31.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.37850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.220546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x686b…5de0backed Yes65c29.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.091040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes53c28.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2312357.7%71 W · 52 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa874…1eebbacked No58c27.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x686c…b21dbacked No63c26.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f4b…a738backed Yes46c26.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No47c25.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebe5…d852backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes75c19.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8645127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes79c19.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.029741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes57c18.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.162626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd818…03c4backed No73c15.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.135860.3%35 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.