Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ad6d4c6a79cee03e174f85f76869d2c1fd404bf97f6fa550dbae780c4df26a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 3c | 2,552$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 49c | 639.73$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 4c | 619.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 2c | 563.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 519.42$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 75c | 388.25$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Yes | 28c | 344.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 12c | 341.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 36c | 271.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 257.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…8002backed Yes | 11c | 250.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 35c | 224.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 59c | 197.21$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 178.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…dac8backed Yes | 47c | 150.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 32c | 147.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 42c | 131.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 129.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 33c | 107.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…4e72backed Yes | 27c | 107.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 53c | 94.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 89.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 75c | 86.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 70.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 70.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 68.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 63.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…0292backed Yes | 32c | 55.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 43.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 39c | 42.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 35c | 41.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 38.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x686b…5de0backed Yes | 35c | 38.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 61c | 36.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 44c | 36.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c9…1936backed Yes | 47c | 35.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 34.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 64c | 33.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 63c | 33.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 38c | 31.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…1eebbacked No | 61c | 21.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on February 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.