TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$434,544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $434,544 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes49c26,151$12,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,335.8587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes26c24,374$6,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,048.6658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde17…0988backed Yes50c20,850$10,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,489.383056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d38…84abbacked No47c14,181$6,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,655.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x100d…1baabacked No0c11,539$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc861…63afbacked No79c6,455$5,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,098.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9567…e505backed No60c6,446$3,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,890.955170.6%36 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No55c5,662$3,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.013447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeef3…484dbacked Yes38c5,589$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,453.812100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+112.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe5…8e3dbacked Yes56c5,195$2,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,285.7540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed Yes38c4,987$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,087.974654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes30c4,734$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,303.26432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes38c4,501$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,781.59616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes38c4,282$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.311720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes42c3,236$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.140643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb148…bb0ebacked Yes67c3,113$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.961533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed No52c2,636$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3782433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes30c2,511$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.382937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes32c2,060$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.365726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No33c1,940$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.4631523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…64b0backed Yes53c1,839$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.87955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No16c1,800$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2942417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43a6…8b32backed No74c1,500$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1105470.4%38 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes72c1,357$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.912259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf921…be16backed Yes22c1,275$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.28429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes39c1,093$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.88919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes73c1,075$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd722…0564backed Yes14c1,064$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.75825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes27c1,056$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.156518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6758…30e1backed No62c989.22$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.41633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No56c972.5$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.5821651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes21c939.27$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.035117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes40c894.87$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.435954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983e…c5cebacked Yes54c846.96$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7655…1fa8backed Yes29c825.49$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.54616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x616c…aab7backed No61c799.58$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d55…1ab7backed Yes26c788.52$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.111145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+25.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5342…d243backed No41c784.46$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.572425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f3…2822backed Yes40c728.4$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.042025%5 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x247f…6749backed Yes66c714.87$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.06580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+60.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff2f…b07ebacked Yes30c654.84$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+232.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Yes40c617.71$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.333522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes55c593.85$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.551861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+28.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No44c526.16$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.148116%13 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c2…67a3backed Yes51c522.38$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.971323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes14c505.96$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.83998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes42c502.53$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.453066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes12c499.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.991435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+57%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf274…37f4backed Yes12c468$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.155612.5%7 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+48.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes20c434.07$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.5513624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x65c2…c1e1backed No47c412.33$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No47c401.29$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes50c386.54$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.21915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes52c378.86$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.2616537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c375.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.626785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db5…fa3ebacked Yes39c373.65$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+59.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1925…8d91backed Yes8c361.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.6728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33fb…897cbacked Yes24c353.25$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.595614.3%8 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x744f…5f3dbacked Yes29c350.87$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.121533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ae…09edbacked No53c346.29$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5655…cad4backed Yes39c344.67$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.914100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+88.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7fa…733dbacked No26c332.34$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.971020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes38c321.68$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.421729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe547…5fb5backed No61c319.45$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.32666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked Yes40c313.62$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.119940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes22c299.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.998521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d95…ad25backed No77c280.04$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes67c266.86$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.873426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed No47c260.97$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.913050%15 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes22c250.13$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+124.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e0d…1fa6backed Yes60c246.26$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.51147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-88.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…9a1abacked No41c236.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.071060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ad…b913backed Yes63c231.63$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c3…9962backed Yes40c229.11$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f6…0acabacked No23c223.03$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.631030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067a…404cbacked Yes54c211.5$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+6.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xab0e…4393backed Yes51c209.98$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf20c…3305backed Yes65c203.53$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes8c202.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7eb…eb13backed No25c201.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes40c200.75$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.5828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf648…05c7backed No80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes9c200$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1831792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes9c200$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1831672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9951…8644backed Yes17c199.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+74.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes32c195.27$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.782548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5379…a031backed Yes37c172.97$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6510555.2%58 W · 47 L+11.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf2d…a1c4backed Yes56c152.58$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef39…423bbacked Yes46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e8…78dfbacked No40c147.41$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.29933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4453…b560backed Yes43c135.89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.92728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a54…2446backed Yes74c132.06$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1b…4eddbacked Yes27c124.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.42025%5 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d541backed No67c123.76$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x025f…25cfbacked Yes19c122.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.722240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e8b…aa2fbacked Yes39c118.97$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.15825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc1f…222bbacked Yes66c114.02$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd946…4de6backed Yes22c107.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+265.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b74…aacbbacked Yes73c104.4$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.19366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3b2…da22backed Yes44c103.51$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.