Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d90ba2893e960d119f153469117b8b4d51ba36573f7cb2613e22178c066f72f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 0c | 22,095$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,460$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 3,564$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.47 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a88cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,623$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,971$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.88 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,499$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 12c | 1,401$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 4c | 1,101$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed Yes | 1c | 1,070$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.24per pick | 28cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…e40cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,010$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 6c | 853.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 799.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…e32abacked Yes | 8c | 775.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 9c | 697.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 4c | 563.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…1ab7backed Yes | 12c | 523$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 2c | 470.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 412.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd407…eb96backed Yes | 10c | 183.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes | 10c | 144.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Yes | 11c | 141.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…d5cebacked Yes | 12c | 102.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…3bdcbacked Yes | 13c | 99.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.