Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa86b23903ff0fa0966357b62988bee8ed50fb1c44a9f6a5cc658e8eadf5935d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,663 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeee…4e57backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba7…3c46backed No | 1c | 8,662$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 65c | 6,817$4,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.18 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 26c | 5,630$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.63 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 36c | 2,875$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.83 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…6420backed No | 34c | 2,294$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 66c | 2,087$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.56 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 15c | 1,479$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.15 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed Yes | 68c | 1,064$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.39 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 65c | 1,027$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.77 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 33c | 900$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 10c | 749.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes | 66c | 718.75$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 30c | 576.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.1 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 35c | 437.77$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 6c | 399.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed No | 7c | 359.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…89b7backed No | 33c | 317.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 77c | 256.12$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked No | 13c | 248.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes | 62c | 198.58$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 73c | 134.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…04f9backed No | 23c | 98.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…76f7backed Yes | 68c | 93.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 27c | 65.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…858bbacked No | 33c | 59.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes | 61c | 55.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…35dcbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…491cbacked Yes | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…1ab7backed Yes | 70c | 46.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…d5cebacked Yes | 68c | 44.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 26c | 42.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Yes | 67c | 36.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 60c | 32.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…e32abacked Yes | 73c | 29.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 37c | 29.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes | 80c | 29.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…44d9backed Yes | 72c | 19.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Yes | 66c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 16-22?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.