Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d0f229123369d28330aed32c5f1817aee58ba43a4d41eabd694fa5cda770b81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,110 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 8c | 25,160$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.56 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…8e3dbacked Yes | 19c | 15,212$2,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 12c | 13,213$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.37 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 14c | 11,097$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.17 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 10c | 7,623$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…7631backed No | 77c | 6,503$5,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.27 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 12c | 6,237$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.09 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…67a3backed Yes | 12c | 4,514$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d2…2184backed Yes | 5c | 3,489$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 76c | 3,285$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.5 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 12c | 3,243$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.12 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes | 19c | 3,043$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.69 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…1ab7backed Yes | 14c | 2,813$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 12c | 2,356$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.89 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Yes | 17c | 2,308$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.12 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 11c | 2,297$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.11 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 15c | 2,198$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 11c | 2,131$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 76c | 1,990$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.4 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0d…1fa6backed Yes | 17c | 1,905$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.19 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 7c | 1,733$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…8d91backed Yes | 6c | 1,597$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,521$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,424$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.05 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,399$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…64b0backed Yes | 25c | 1,328$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…7e98backed Yes | 9c | 1,322$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +340.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed Yes | 13c | 1,299$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…9627backed Yes | 8c | 1,232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 7c | 1,165$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 21c | 1,161$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.98 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 10c | 1,016$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,007$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…0564backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 20c | 789.76$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 737$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed Yes | 9c | 725.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.24per pick | 28cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 725.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…29cdbacked Yes | 14c | 709.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 16c | 705.63$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…5f3dbacked Yes | 14c | 705.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 12c | 704.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 624.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…3371backed Yes | 3c | 584.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ce…1199backed Yes | 7c | 563.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe61f…f07abacked Yes | 16c | 553.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…97febacked Yes | 9c | 553.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 76c | 520$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…76dcbacked Yes | 10c | 508.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes | 16c | 500.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Yes | 10c | 499.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd797…e146backed Yes | 17c | 482.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…b9ecbacked Yes | 12c | 442.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…5fb5backed No | 74c | 436.98$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…3921backed Yes | 16c | 361.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…88f3backed Yes | 7c | 319.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 12c | 318.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 13c | 318.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 14c | 316.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…f8e8backed Yes | 13c | 310.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes | 9c | 310.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -26%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…a73fbacked Yes | 14c | 273.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 15c | 270.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…966cbacked Yes | 9c | 262.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…bd3abacked Yes | 5c | 259.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a54…2446backed Yes | 12c | 257.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 19c | 251.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…4ab1backed No | 71c | 241.83$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 36c | 232.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…2a76backed Yes | 20c | 231.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…894bbacked Yes | 19c | 226.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 16c | 222.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 79c | 209.35$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +9.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +28%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa90b…3b03backed Yes | 24c | 206.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed Yes | 6c | 206.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77a6…4387backed Yes | 18c | 193.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf856…bb73backed Yes | 12c | 191.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed No | 78c | 187.32$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…e32abacked Yes | 12c | 165.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1072…750cbacked Yes | 11c | 156.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8b…aa2fbacked Yes | 13c | 150.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 28c | 147.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd25f…b448backed No | 70c | 139.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bc…1523backed Yes | 10c | 139.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05cb…f625backed Yes | 15c | 132.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…4eddbacked Yes | 15c | 132.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 77c | 128.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked Yes | 19c | 127.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…9cb8backed Yes | 17c | 116.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…aeb4backed Yes | 13c | 113.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 13c | 103.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c2…732abacked Yes | 10c | 100.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…31bebacked No | 79c | 98.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 26c | 88.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 38c | 86.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.