TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$278,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,110 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes8c25,160$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.56185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+144.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe5…8e3dbacked Yes19c15,212$2,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,852.81540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes12c13,213$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.3758126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes14c11,097$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.1787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes10c7,623$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No77c6,503$5,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.273447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes12c6,237$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.0928021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c2…67a3backed Yes12c4,514$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.291323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68d2…2184backed Yes5c3,489$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.21120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9567…e505backed No76c3,285$2,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.55170.6%36 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes12c3,243$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.1219535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes19c3,043$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.692937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d55…1ab7backed Yes14c2,813$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.841145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+25.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf921…be16backed Yes12c2,356$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.89429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes17c2,308$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.125726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes11c2,297$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1123411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7655…1fa8backed Yes15c2,198$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes11c2,131$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.23998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No76c1,990$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.44650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e0d…1fa6backed Yes17c1,905$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.19147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-88.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes7c1,733$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.651792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1925…8d91backed Yes6c1,597$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.56728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes7c1,521$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.851672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes14c1,424$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.05407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c1,399$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.726785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…64b0backed Yes25c1,328$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.03955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3b…7e98backed Yes9c1,322$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.94560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+340.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cfa…b608backed Yes13c1,299$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2dae…9627backed Yes8c1,232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.72147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-89.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes7c1,165$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.062683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f3…2822backed Yes21c1,161$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.982025%5 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes10c1,016$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.611379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes6c1,007$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.87119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd722…0564backed Yes7c1,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11014019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes8c1,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.22581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd242…e84dbacked Yes20c789.76$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.951428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c737$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.712417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc241…1487backed Yes9c725.54$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.732951.7%15 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.24per pick28cpaid+122.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes9c725.21$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.14160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1b…29cdbacked Yes14c709.62$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.651118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+209.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes16c705.63$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744f…5f3dbacked Yes14c705.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.061533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes12c704.38$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.536518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes9c624.56$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.391373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d1…3371backed Yes3c584.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.87666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62ce…1199backed Yes7c563.2$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe61f…f07abacked Yes16c553.74$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c49…97febacked Yes9c553.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.83150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No76c520$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.831523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a47…76dcbacked Yes10c508.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes16c500.52$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.22147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked Yes10c499.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd797…e146backed Yes17c482.19$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.27130%0 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94bb…b9ecbacked Yes12c442.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe547…5fb5backed No74c436.98$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.69666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5e…3921backed Yes16c361.23$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.841612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-61.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5ec…88f3backed Yes7c319.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.48520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-57.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes12c318.32$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.924318.6%8 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33fb…897cbacked Yes13c318.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.925614.3%8 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes14c316.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41da…f8e8backed Yes13c310.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.53910.3%4 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes9c310.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.71030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-26%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db0…a73fbacked Yes14c273.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes15c270.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6113624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x455a…966cbacked Yes9c262.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.911346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca68…bd3abacked Yes5c259.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.99137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a54…2446backed Yes12c257.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes19c251.05$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.453066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbdf4…4ab1backed No71c241.83$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes36c232.58$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.713426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7778…2a76backed Yes20c231.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.72714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d8…894bbacked Yes19c226.85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf274…37f4backed Yes16c222.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.675612.5%7 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+48.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked No79c209.35$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.234673.9%34 W · 12 L+9.4wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+28%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa90b…3b03backed Yes24c206.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a33…13f3backed Yes6c206.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b2…da22backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1505…a5e8backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43652.8%19 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77a6…4387backed Yes18c193.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.53248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf856…bb73backed Yes12c191.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick22cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7eb…eb13backed No78c187.32$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf70f…e32abacked Yes12c165.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.911136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick24cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1072…750cbacked Yes11c156.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-16.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e8b…aa2fbacked Yes13c150.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes28c147.51$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.881729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd25f…b448backed No70c139.71$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8bc…1523backed Yes10c139.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes15c132.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.842213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+141.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1b…4eddbacked Yes15c132.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.822025%5 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2edb…9ac5backed No77c128.09$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.675448.1%26 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked Yes19c127.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.82425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df1…9cb8backed Yes17c116.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4129…aeb4backed Yes13c113.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa920…be41backed Yes13c103.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.49100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c2…732abacked Yes10c100.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+28.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x397b…31bebacked No79c98.62$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes26c88.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.958521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes38c86.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.493923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.