TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 March 16-22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,265
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,638

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,265 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes44c8,073$3,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,502.0687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No38c7,170$2,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,745.563447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x784d…d27dbacked Yes80c3,716$2,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.12729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed Yes43c3,338$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.754654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc250…8d6ebacked No77c1,969$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.855964.4%38 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-12%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x247f…6749backed Yes62c1,568$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+60.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde17…0988backed Yes71c1,488$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.243056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes24c1,243$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.448919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes44c1,238$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.882937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No11c1,200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes33c987.55$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.168619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7655…1fa8backed No29c938.8$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.25616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd722…0564backed Yes31c934.09$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.04825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No49c879.25$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.428021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes30c822.85$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.316518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked No19c718.07$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.773998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No26c592.14$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7121651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No13c559.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9531523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacca…08b1backed Yes48c494.11$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.942850%14 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked No45c487.46$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9611720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad07…8cd1backed No23c435.19$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed1…18a8backed No26c416.49$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+83.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed No20c348.96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.793630.6%11 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+111.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes30c335.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.5858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2464…44a1backed Yes61c334.06$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.851968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No56c329.5$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8740643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes46c316.03$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.652744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe82d…adc8backed No16c309.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes48c305.34$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.4416537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No35c300.29$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.258116%13 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes68c292.83$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6812259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8283…0ca8backed No51c273.54$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa772…05efbacked No39c265.1$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.393158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No69c212.04$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.582857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa705…8998backed No60c205.03$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.041338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1541435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+57%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No32c199.26$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.72825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70f3…2822backed Yes47c190.41$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.792025%5 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd778…6b0fbacked Yes41c179.54$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.93728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1072…750cbacked No37c176.95$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.89333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-16.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeb12…afb2backed No55c176.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cfa…9bb4backed Yes36c175.22$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.142646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes28c174.94$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.961428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdad9…8289backed Yes80c155.65$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes36c155.01$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.665726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6884…c68dbacked No34c142.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc7d…305ebacked No73c142.06$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134d…1da2backed Yes69c141.61$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.95164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e11…4b16backed No66c138.18$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.731346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No71c137.86$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8810067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x933c…b820backed Yes78c126.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No34c117.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-39.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a28…0e02backed No55c111.56$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick62cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes44c110.65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.122147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb95a…cbf6backed Yes31c108.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+125%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6014019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc887…869bbacked No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3486…b78ebacked No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd242…e84dbacked Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab9…9637backed Yes31c98.86$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+120.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked Yes62c98.66$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.369940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe349…7552backed Yes57c98.36$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes40c97.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.275117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf70f…e32abacked Yes42c91.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.751136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick24cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes68c90.4$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.693066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5379…a031backed Yes66c81.09$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5110555.2%58 W · 47 L+11.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88eb…76f7backed No59c80.03$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.22742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+62.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53b5…d768backed No45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1275…1517backed No64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.22552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206a…94ddbacked Yes38c79.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d55…1ab7backed Yes44c79$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.241145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+25.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeee…4e57backed No27c71.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b5…009fbacked No28c69.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a4…debabacked Yes57c68.09$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes75c67.79$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.176446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1736…74ddbacked No38c65.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…b2c2backed No52c55.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.072454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+88.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30f6…0acabacked No20c54.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.721030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d0…d5cebacked No60c53.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.15825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-59%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a1b…4eddbacked Yes55c53.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.912025%5 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db5…fa3ebacked Yes78c48.78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+59.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9112…7797backed Yes64c48.67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.524553.3%24 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No69c47.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.582020%4 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-67.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Yes57c46.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x227d…1a26backed Yes43c45.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.729063.3%57 W · 33 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes34c43.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3813624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd44f…0992backed No60c41.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes38c39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+39.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82e4…d70bbacked No50c38.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No53c37.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992123.8%5 W · 16 L-5.3wins-0.25per pick49cpaid-53%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No38c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e3…f08fbacked No73c33.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…aca1backed No69c33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.611752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9d8…1263backed No68c27.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf36…ffc6backed No72c27.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43c0…8cabbacked Yes43c27.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+90.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f95…01a8backed Yes42c26.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.