Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e701ca5314956b9e5e701c56935569ab550108d26d13dd9ffd5f5e0e2e0388e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,933 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 3c | 40,993$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.25 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,503$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 7c | 9,037$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.17 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 0c | 8,749$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,410$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.26 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…7631backed No | 71c | 5,078$3,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.09 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66be…65a8backed Yes | 2c | 4,166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,649$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…1943backed Yes | 0c | 2,678$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 2c | 2,456$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed Yes | 2c | 2,199$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.24per pick | 28cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,141$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.41 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf199…ab80backed Yes | 1c | 2,123$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 7c | 1,722$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,625$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,540$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked Yes | 3c | 1,466$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 19c | 1,250$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,212$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa3…cebbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,169$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…14ebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,149$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…ebe9backed Yes | 3c | 1,137$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,095$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…e32abacked Yes | 8c | 1,015$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 3c | 999.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a7…7916backed Yes | 25c | 868$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 15c | 795.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 78c | 696.03$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.13 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 21c | 690.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.97 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5eb…1bd3backed No | 68c | 585.8$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6e…7d5fbacked Yes | 3c | 566.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes | 21c | 507.48$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…05e2backed Yes | 3c | 399.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…2776backed Yes | 18c | 396.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 37c | 340.37$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 76c | 321.74$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 272.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…31cdbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…596bbacked Yes | 21c | 173.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…b2ccbacked No | 69c | 141.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…436fbacked Yes | 22c | 134.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 103.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…3964backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…1f1fbacked No | 79c | 98.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 24c | 93.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…d5cebacked Yes | 26c | 83.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 77c | 79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…db0dbacked Yes | 20c | 78.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 80c | 69.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 80c | 65.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed No | 79c | 62.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2efb…fa14backed No | 75c | 58.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…9637backed Yes | 27c | 58.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed Yes | 20c | 50.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd407…eb96backed Yes | 24c | 43.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 75c | 41.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…f08fbacked No | 73c | 33.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed No | 77c | 31.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d95…ad25backed No | 77c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffc6backed No | 78c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…62c7backed No | 76c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…5b46backed No | 77c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d81…33acbacked No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.