TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc366…73ce

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 53 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT258%2 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.25
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.55
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.07
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.17
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.53
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.25
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.61
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.1
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$54.39
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.65
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.83
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,323.8%+$180.11
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.34
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.09
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.02
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 25 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick12cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 23-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.8
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.61
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.97
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.01
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+357.3%+$210.15
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+88.7%+$62.08
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$214.41
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+182.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+130.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microsoft dip to $435 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Microsoft dip to $465 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+361.4%+$542.14
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Devils vs. Sharksbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Lille OSC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10.88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.