Commodities · resolved market
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9fe907d1a2beeb8e01ff1d3c6a238003e4793bbf31f749233350c412a1f3a5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 47,067$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.48 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked No | 1c | 32,796$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.58 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…3f0dbacked No | 1c | 25,253$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed Yes | 80c | 6,482$5,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.63 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 20c | 6,394$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.14 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 47c | 3,230$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.14 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,841$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.89 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 17c | 1,834$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.85 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 22c | 1,614$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.28 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 80c | 1,423$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.42 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…d732backed Yes | 76c | 1,373$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 59c | 1,328$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.66 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Yes | 6c | 1,275$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.97 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…a4b9backed No | 4c | 1,137$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ab…fd79backed No | 35c | 900$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 13c | 879.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.97 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 24c | 804.8$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.01 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed No | 17c | 776.26$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a7…f6b9backed Yes | 7c | 738.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 15cpaid | +499.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 12c | 702.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.31 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 59c | 663.74$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.98 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 23c | 610.17$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.97 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked No | 65c | 597.37$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.66 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 3c | 570.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.32 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 21c | 529$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 43c | 524.28$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.28 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 522.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.3 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 492.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518f…5963backed Yes | 42c | 477.48$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 24c | 417.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 13c | 414.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.3 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed No | 26c | 392.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 5c | 343.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.55 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 52c | 317.84$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.42 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked Yes | 9c | 316.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…b589backed Yes | 79c | 293$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 18c | 260$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 228.78$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.36 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 203.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.8 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…864dbacked No | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 195.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 193.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +187.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 187.56$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.53 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 183.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 64c | 181.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.45 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf7…c237backed Yes | 51c | 171.61$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb935…204bbacked No | 23c | 164.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 26c | 155.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked No | 21c | 153.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…af02backed Yes | 78c | 150.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 148.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 22c | 146.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…0b3fbacked No | 34c | 145.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 138.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb60c…8e81backed Yes | 23c | 126.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 45c | 121.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 119$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…eb2abacked Yes | 11c | 114$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 26c | 105.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 37c | 100.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 79c | 100.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 15c | 99.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…fa5bbacked No | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 27c | 88.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 85.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…00dfbacked Yes | 42c | 76.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc17c…6390backed No | 26c | 75.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…1104backed Yes | 72c | 70.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 69.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 45c | 55.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 55.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 50c | 51.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 23c | 46.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 63c | 46.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 28c | 43.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…8fddbacked Yes | 77c | 39.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…2260backed Yes | 77c | 39.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 27c | 39.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked No | 69c | 37.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 49c | 37.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…e696backed Yes | 74c | 33.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 57cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…1919backed Yes | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…2462backed Yes | 76c | 32.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed No | 49c | 30.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…70c7backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 73c | 29.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 73c | 28.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e0…8236backed Yes | 72c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 77c | 26.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?No won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?No won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.