TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb760…ccd7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
314
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: AI, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category AI at 61 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT7946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
AI — the 79 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,476Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+119.3%+$1,760.59
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.66
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.99
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.3
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.95
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$434.56
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$123
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$52.22
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$44.2
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.93
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$944Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$280.68
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.48
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$67.5
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$97.75
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+103.5%+$111.28
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$579Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+152.6%+$883.84
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$548Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$465
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
ChatGPT Outage by April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+97.8%+$20.18
ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.71
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$345.29
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Showing 25 of 79 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT6936.2%25 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.76
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.9
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$697Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$343.24
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.01
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$480.93
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.23
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.72
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$22.12
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.85
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$118.45
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$4.35
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.09
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+238.1%+$456.32
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+69.1%+$204.25
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$616Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+94.8%+$584
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$88
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$82
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$205
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$775Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$774.99
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$82.49
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$186
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,626Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$875.25
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.53
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.37
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.17
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT4940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,170Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+228.8%+$2,676.66
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.14
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$463Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+256.6%+$1,188.39
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.75
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,904Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,903.51
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$446Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$446.5
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,695Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,694.78
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,529Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,528.77
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Restore receives 10%+ first preference votes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$357.52
Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.8
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+233.8%+$430.74
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.96
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,286Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,286.22
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.51
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.03
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$506Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$505.59
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.39
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+105.9%+$36.04
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$90.4
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$5,841Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+151.7%+$8,862.84
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,778Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+150%+$2,667
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+767.4%+$1,955.04
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$5,849Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+69.9%+$4,088.49
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.86
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT4030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+81.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.01
Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.39
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+117.6%+$300.83
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+3,233.3%+$1,648.75
Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$696Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$696.12
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.95
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,223.84
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.22
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,087Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,086.91
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$127.18
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,134.59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,455Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,455.29
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$406Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$405.73
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.89
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.63
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$569Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$568.75
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,352Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+71.4%+$1,678.49
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,347Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+246.3%+$3,318.43
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$11.96
Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$259
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$265.91
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.19
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.45
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+53.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 26 be between 3,500 and 4,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+32.4%+$106.16
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$727Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+88.4%+$642.84
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$371.39
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+65.7%+$10.89
Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.58
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$117.5
Will more than 2.8 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$689Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+47.7%+$328.46
Prince Andrew loses Duke of York title by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.45
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+1,051.9%+$401.21
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+59.6%+$131.5
Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$6.6
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$70.85
Missing Epstein cell footage released by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.24
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$56
Will Donald Trump disparage Vladimir Putin on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 18 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Flying Tulip FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$29.94
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+94.2%+$97
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$35.8
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+1,111.8%+$210.35
Over $5M committed to the Makina public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$13.2
Over $4M committed to the Makina public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$39.5
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+42.9%+$121.66
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$160.75
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+150%+$150
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.55
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.74
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$151.62
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$14.6
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$122.81
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$941Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$941.11
More EU sanctions on Russia by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+61.6%+$147.95
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$56
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$30
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.5
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+26.7%+$31.65
All 12 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+323.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$731Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+323.8%+$2,368.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Sep 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$148.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$245
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+59%+$81.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lebron announce final season Tuesday? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$209
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$245.52
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.