Music · resolved market
Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG" debut at #1 in its first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bb3d099aac0708eccf0c9111d3b8c1712254b039c5c51348cb31b06da6dc537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 79c | 8,222$6,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.65 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,102$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 11c | 1,872$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 4c | 1,372$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…9368backed No | 32c | 945.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46c…fba1backed Yes | 4c | 880.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 64c | 846.67$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.88 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 2c | 833.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 80c | 582.85$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.97 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 43c | 556.03$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 65c | 509.3$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 50c | 490.03$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…b901backed No | 12c | 440.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +385.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 417.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 389.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 37c | 367.31$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.02 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.39per pick | 40cpaid | +245.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 76c | 352.45$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.13 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 77c | 341.66$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…83b9backed No | 56c | 279.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 73c | 238.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 38c | 230.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d30…6ac3backed No | 27c | 205$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 22c | 155$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa70c…5d12backed No | 71c | 153.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 35c | 136.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed No | 24c | 124.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +314.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 63c | 120.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 39c | 116$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…8840backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 72c | 96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 43c | 92.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed No | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…d68dbacked Yes | 60c | 83.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 25c | 81.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 81.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 35c | 78.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 44c | 76.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…7230backed Yes | 60c | 76.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…c741backed Yes | 72c | 72.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 25c | 66.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed Yes | 64c | 63.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed Yes | 25c | 53.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…efcebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac1…718abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…04acbacked Yes | 72c | 41.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 52c | 40.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked Yes | 41c | 39.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 48c | 30.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x165a…3975backed Yes | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…7978backed Yes | 69c | 26.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 73c | 23.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 74c | 20.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…ecafbacked No | 58c | 19.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 62c | 18.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.