TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x064c…2de1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
212
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst MLB at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST4158.5%24 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.47
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+68.1%+$20.25
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+92.3%+$33.6
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$10.86
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.95
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.94
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$17.25
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$12
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$15.84
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$32.7
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+38.9%+$6.38
Will Trump endorse Eric Adams?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+46.8%+$56.77
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+62.9%+$23.31
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+98.8%+$14.08
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.71
Will the U.S. national debt hit $38 trillion in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+26.5%+$11.9
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.73
Will Elon register the America Party before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+50.8%+$24.32
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+150%+$15
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.32
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+152%+$121.27
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.18
Trump approval >45% on August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+56.8%+$61.19
35% Canada tariff in effect by August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.5
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37.1%+$84.63
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$184.32
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$7.25
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+41.7%+$50.44
Shaun Maguire out at Sequoia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.1%+$13.04
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$22.5
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$17.83
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+26.8%+$18.87
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+26.3%+$20.48
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$59.43
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.23
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+25%+$3.4
Palmer Luckey Erebor Bank chartered in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.54
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.26
Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+30.7%+$11.75
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.75
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.25
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+25%+$10
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.65
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+34%+$30.25
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+28.9%+$52.38
Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+71.5%+$33.25
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+69.3%+$35.11
Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+41.2%+$76.11
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT2060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+66.5%+$59.79
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.2
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+36.2%+$16.52
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+57.3%+$10
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+221.1%+$64.97
Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.94
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$34.49
Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+192%+$56.65
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.07
Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.99
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+364.7%+$80.05
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on July 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+37%+$6.75
Will the highest temperature in London be between 85-86°F on July 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.57
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+26.2%+$22.01
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.2
Will the highest temperature in London be between 87-88°F on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+31.1%+$26.1
Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$166.38
Will the highest temperature in London be between 85-86°F on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+109.2%+$81.53
All 20 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST1560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+94.6%+$21.25
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+41.8%+$49.8
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$18.5
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$11
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.3
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+114.6%+$36.05
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.26
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$156.66
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.14
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+72.7%+$42.55
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+68.2%+$30.41
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.61
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick69cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.22
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+50.1%+$9.5
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.5%+$19.45
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+34.5%+$19.25
Israel x Syria security deal before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+28.6%+$31.04
Israel strikes Iran before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+40.6%+$38.75
US strikes Yemen before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+35.8%+$62.59
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$21
Another Israel strike on Damascus by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+92.4%+$9.45
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+27.1%+$17.81
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT+30.9%+$92.56
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.87
Another Israel strike on Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$458Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+31.2%+$143.12
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BTS release any tracks in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+123.4%+$43.25
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.6%+$86.19
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$39.07
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+235.6%+$51.96
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$51.75
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$30.49
Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+223.3%+$42.25
Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.5
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+35.5%+$25.94
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+48.7%+$24.57
25% South Korea tariff in effect by August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+76.2%+$32.35
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+60.2%+$31.51
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.82
All 13 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+44.1%+$22.75
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$47.78
Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+139.8%+$55.83
WLFI >$13B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+79.8%+$97.01
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+26.7%+$133.32
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$292.41
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+44.3%+$194.15
Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+35.3%+$69
Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+43.5%+$144.88
Hyperliquid all time high before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+59.8%+$10.03
All 10 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
MLB — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paul Skenes win the 2025 NL Cy Young?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$38.18
Will Tarik Skubal win the 2025 AL Cy Young?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.5
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in Home Runs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$11.25
Will the New York Yankees win the AL East Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+71.4%+$31.25
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the AL East Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.36
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the NL Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.75
Will the New York Mets win the NL East Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$20
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the NL East Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$153.17
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-46.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+274.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fnatic win the 2025 Valorant Esports World Cup Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+274.5%+$72.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT+111.6%+$52.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2025 FedEx Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$12.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James be traded this offseason?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$5.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Series of Poker – American winner?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.