AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a51e4c89437c1c792c8fd2bb834e937b5795e2a27de1c1ad0018c99469efc33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $281,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 15,968$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.82 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 2c | 12,331$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.42 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…c705backed Yes | 22c | 7,500$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…93dcbacked No | 78c | 7,500$5,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ff…c1fbbacked Yes | 1c | 7,142$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…ca14backed Yes | 1c | 7,100$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 3c | 6,488$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…5548backed Yes | 1c | 6,007$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…0d7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,927$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 2c | 5,019$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…a46bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,049$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,692$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…feffbacked Yes | 1c | 3,687$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d6…5ba2backed Yes | 3c | 2,876$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 2,808$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.55 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 4c | 2,420$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 3c | 2,143$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,757$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,728$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 70c | 1,361$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 2c | 1,344$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,194$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…8433backed Yes | 22c | 1,135$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,099$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 2c | 1,070$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…0329backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 998.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 988.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…6bf8backed Yes | 30c | 901.58$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…a09cbacked Yes | 2c | 862.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 23c | 859.81$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 840.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 832.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 819.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 2c | 800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 2c | 762$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 739$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 2c | 700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 622.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…edcabacked Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…b663backed Yes | 45c | 561.78$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…ac22backed No | 78c | 537.96$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…55efbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 3c | 476$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 9c | 444.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a2…a56ebacked Yes | 23c | 441$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 4c | 404.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b4a8backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7699…0b51backed Yes | 26c | 389.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed No | 55c | 371.78$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13bf…2817backed Yes | 29c | 347.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…c5a4backed Yes | 27c | 325.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 71c | 324.92$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…eaf9backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 73c | 312.64$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 67c | 299.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 80c | 290.24$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda55…edc0backed No | 80c | 250.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a0…dbc9backed Yes | 8c | 248.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…fdd3backed Yes | 21c | 232.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a2…203abacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…ae74backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 21c | 163.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 32c | 157.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 76c | 147.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 70c | 138.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fb…c3efbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81e…ab79backed Yes | 30c | 109.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…8b94backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…cf07backed Yes | 31c | 97.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 26c | 94.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…a0b1backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 14c | 86.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…ba10backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 28c | 72.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 75c | 57.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…c825backed Yes | 34c | 57.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c21…a532backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…9c50backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…bde5backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…72dabacked No | 80c | 25.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef6…c761backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8459…8bd2backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X?this page
- Will David Sacks be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Grok be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Gwynne Shotwell be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Jack Dorsey be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will John Legere be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will John Nitti be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Keith Coleman be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Mahmoud Reza Banki be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Marissa Mayer be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will MrBeast be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Sheryl Sandberg be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Sriram Krishnan be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Susan Wojcicki be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will no CEO be announced in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.