AI · resolved market
Will MrBeast be the next CEO of X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb20a6ae7a8257d4397c4bd37d53463b33c8bf7d06ed8d90060dec096f83101ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e93…4f02backed Yes | 5c | 11,678$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,874$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d306backed Yes | 3c | 2,265$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 2c | 2,127$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…faf0backed Yes | 6c | 2,046$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…8353backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 3c | 1,523$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…283ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,418$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…9368backed Yes | 7c | 1,359$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,098$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 6c | 883.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…480dbacked Yes | 3c | 735.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 680.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 471.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf8…b9dfbacked Yes | 4c | 466.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…fdd3backed Yes | 11c | 464.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x887e…4b12backed Yes | 4c | 451.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 446.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 71c | 386.69$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 4c | 285$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 6c | 171$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…9513backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MrBeast be the next CEO of X?this page
- Will David Sacks be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Grok be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Gwynne Shotwell be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Jack Dorsey be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will John Legere be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will John Nitti be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Keith Coleman be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Mahmoud Reza Banki be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Marissa Mayer be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Sheryl Sandberg be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Sriram Krishnan be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Susan Wojcicki be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will no CEO be announced in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.