TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xee69…05d0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 59 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2755.6%15 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,691Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,690.87
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,956Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+174%+$5,143.47
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$7,225Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,224.73
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,010.15
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$139.54
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25,436Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+39.6%+$10,063.49
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44%+$152.73
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+165.7%+$205.79
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$574Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+126.5%+$726
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,043Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+64.3%+$1,956.79
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+63.9%+$132.6
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+180.9%+$321.99
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$963Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+55.8%+$537.15
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$60
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$426.53
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,877Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+28.6%+$1,107.81
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,258Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,257.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$6,083Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+343.9%+$20,917.44
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$4,551Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+64.8%+$2,948.65
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$93.33
Will Netanyahu say "Palestine" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.85
Will Netanyahu say "Antisemitic" or "Antisemitism" 5+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.82
Will Netanyahu say "Iran" 25+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+95%+$365.16
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$463Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+159.3%+$736.87
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$3,323Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,323.21
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$7,268Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+45.3%+$3,295.34
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$6,375Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+135.3%+$8,624.86
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.26
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.49
Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,248Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,248.14
Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+50.1%+$182.96
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.9
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+127.7%+$145.8
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,332Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+31.4%+$418.03
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+72.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$86
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$5,754Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+44.1%+$2,539.76
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$834Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+58.6%+$489.02
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$88.99
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+74.6%+$94.94
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $620b on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+32.4%+$88.35
Will MrBeast be the next CEO of X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.17
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$798Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+526.4%+$4,201.75
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$4,191Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$4,190.61
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$280
Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$889Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$889.38
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,134Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,134
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$3,499Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,499.44
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16,746Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$4,253.83
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$166.4
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.83
All 8 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
IPO — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$161.19
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.69
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,626Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+47.6%+$773.88
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+47.2%+$142.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Navy vs. Cincinnatibacked Navy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+27.1%+$32
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$104.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,368Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,368.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.