IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f31af453f8396fad7664485160aacf7bfbec04c366b5c4c04a1cd2ad2338f38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $746,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $730,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $746,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 1c | 82,102$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…0beabacked No | 2c | 80,458$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 1c | 56,737$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.83 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 73c | 25,260$18,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,776.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 24c | 14,663$3,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,476.56 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…d1e4backed No | 51c | 12,497$6,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,367.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed No | 2c | 10,727$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked No | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…a169backed No | 2c | 9,020$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…f26abacked Yes | 69c | 6,069$4,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked No | 8c | 6,041$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.42 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed No | 9c | 6,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked No | 33c | 6,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 5,896$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 1c | 5,634$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 16c | 5,010$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.05 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 31c | 4,765$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 2c | 4,545$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…b7ddbacked No | 2c | 4,459$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 56c | 4,000$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…105abacked No | 3c | 3,896$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,869$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 51c | 3,846$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 1c | 3,544$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 17c | 3,480$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…0df2backed No | 3c | 3,441$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked No | 3c | 3,300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 44c | 3,185$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked No | 3c | 3,178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 3,164$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed No | 1c | 3,057$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 3,040$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…288bbacked Yes | 58c | 3,033$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 3c | 3,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed No | 29c | 2,831$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…44e8backed No | 2c | 2,650$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3716…bb2dbacked No | 2c | 2,604$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 2c | 2,543$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…8b53backed No | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 16c | 2,454$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.45 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f4fbacked No | 24c | 2,446$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 44c | 2,421$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 2,200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 41c | 2,066$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 63c | 2,010$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…53b0backed No | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 21c | 1,986$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.41 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…0a8cbacked No | 3c | 1,982$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed No | 2c | 1,954$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…d41cbacked No | 35c | 1,922$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 1,847$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…d793backed No | 2c | 1,818$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked No | 2c | 1,755$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…de5bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,650$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…99e4backed No | 1c | 1,514$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf890…a010backed Yes | 56c | 1,500$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…ee23backed No | 1c | 1,467$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked No | 2c | 1,370$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,360$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 2c | 1,349$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed No | 34c | 1,315$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…da49backed No | 2c | 1,292$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 21c | 1,215$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 42c | 1,213$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x010d…2b15backed Yes | 57c | 1,201$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7c…5399backed Yes | 54c | 1,177$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 18c | 1,160$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 2c | 1,158$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed No | 34c | 1,099$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 51c | 1,088$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…c7d3backed No | 3c | 1,083$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 25c | 1,079$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.65 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…3e44backed No | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…b572backed No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked No | 2c | 981.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf491…a078backed No | 2c | 958.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…bc57backed Yes | 57c | 934.42$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c5…5ce7backed No | 2c | 923.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…9189backed No | 3c | 895.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7b44backed No | 2c | 890.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98a…edffbacked No | 1c | 865.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…e36dbacked No | 34c | 852.45$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…d758backed No | 33c | 836.6$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 2c | 829.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 2c | 804.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…4e03backed No | 15c | 752$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e9…cf93backed Yes | 76c | 740.43$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca9…cfafbacked No | 21c | 732.11$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 730.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 3c | 726.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054d…9d94backed No | 34c | 726$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 2c | 721.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…b90abacked No | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…8025backed No | 2c | 683.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…96e3backed Yes | 75c | 645$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 18c | 640.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…f52fbacked No | 34c | 637.22$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…80a2backed No | 2c | 614.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.