TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$746,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$730,936

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $746,479 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1437…acfebacked No1c82,102$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.251118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick9cpaid-51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79df…0beabacked No2c80,458$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No1c56,737$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.831513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-68.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Yes73c25,260$18,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,776.331643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No24c14,663$3,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,476.561717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38a1…d1e4backed No51c12,497$6,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,367.460%0 W · 6 L-3.8wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed No2c10,727$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked No3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc822…a169backed No2c9,020$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7476…f26abacked Yes69c6,069$4,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked No8c6,041$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.42156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-86%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf566…1386backed No9c6,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-67.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked No33c6,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c5,896$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.78640%0 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No1c5,634$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.45340%0 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No16c5,010$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.054131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No31c4,765$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.3770%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No2c4,545$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f3…b7ddbacked No2c4,459$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes56c4,000$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7402100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ed…105abacked No3c3,896$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.98825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,869$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.851274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes51c3,846$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-62.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6b4…6709backed No1c3,544$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.123020%6 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked No17c3,480$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe429…0df2backed No3c3,441$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…ef6abacked No3c3,300$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes44c3,185$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-60.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8b5…280cbacked No3c3,178$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No2c3,164$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.73610%0 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed No1c3,057$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c3,040$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.93500%0 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x905a…288bbacked Yes58c3,033$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+138.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed No3c3,000$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.862227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde63…46c2backed No29c2,831$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.121030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x137b…44e8backed No2c2,650$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.87825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3716…bb2dbacked No2c2,604$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No2c2,543$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.423435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8a…8b53backed No2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed No16c2,454$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.453116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3fe…3f4fbacked No24c2,446$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes44c2,421$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.981926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No2c2,200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes41c2,066$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed Yes63c2,010$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.881546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66da…53b0backed No35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No21c1,986$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.4111634.5%40 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3971…0a8cbacked No3c1,982$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a2…5577backed No2c1,954$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a7…d41cbacked No35c1,922$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c1,847$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.56320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4861…d793backed No2c1,818$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e59…b2bebacked No2c1,755$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4c…de5bbacked Yes55c1,650$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5992…99e4backed No1c1,514$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf890…a010backed Yes56c1,500$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6585100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+117.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa696…ee23backed No1c1,467$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked No2c1,370$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes40c1,360$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.332245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No2c1,349$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed No34c1,315$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.93650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff99…da49backed No2c1,292$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed No21c1,215$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.131428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No42c1,213$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.44100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x010d…2b15backed Yes57c1,201$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e7c…5399backed Yes54c1,177$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+127.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No18c1,160$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.471338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No2c1,158$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.59280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…e696backed No34c1,099$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.71030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes51c1,088$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.53757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe629…c7d3backed No3c1,083$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No25c1,079$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.65120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x256e…3e44backed No34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2df…b572backed No2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1690%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1615…8f2bbacked No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked No2c981.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.47260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf491…a078backed No2c958.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf592…bc57backed Yes57c934.42$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c5…5ce7backed No2c923.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff7…9189backed No3c895.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7b44backed No2c890.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe98a…edffbacked No1c865.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f2…e36dbacked No34c852.45$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…d758backed No33c836.6$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No2c829.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c804.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.29260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d0…4e03backed No15c752$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e9…cf93backed Yes76c740.43$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.993100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca9…cfafbacked No21c732.11$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No5c730.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.21563.6%2 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick10cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No3c726.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x054d…9d94backed No34c726$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No2c721.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.46110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd4…b90abacked No16c700$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02bb…8025backed No2c683.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e6…96e3backed Yes75c645$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No18c640.77$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcae1…f52fbacked No34c637.22$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.21520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-74.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e91…80a2backed No2c614.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x444c…9d2ebacked No2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.