IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfacf82cdf9eeea5d4c0a450acf939bbeab9fe307b5e53191a59171d12072adbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,117,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,161,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,117,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 312 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed No | 1c | 74,453$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 2c | 47,125$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.61 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 0c | 38,047$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 20c | 27,092$5,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,499.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbf…f8edbacked No | 1c | 22,501$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…8244backed No | 1c | 19,400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked No | 1c | 17,088$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f5…5374backed No | 3c | 16,987$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked No | 4c | 16,682$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.19 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 13,687$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…a169backed No | 1c | 12,982$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 12,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…732bbacked No | 1c | 11,208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…8e5cbacked No | 2c | 10,728$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…d1e4backed No | 33c | 10,419$3,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,412.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…3340backed No | 1c | 10,039$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed No | 1c | 9,799$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 9,448$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 8,899$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…f382backed No | 2c | 8,892$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 20c | 8,783$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…d6f1backed No | 1c | 8,731$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked No | 31c | 8,500$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 2c | 8,463$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 12c | 7,562$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.29 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a23…079fbacked Yes | 70c | 7,500$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…da49backed No | 1c | 7,124$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed No | 0c | 6,096$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 0c | 6,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 5,674$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked No | 2c | 5,663$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 67c | 5,514$3,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 1c | 5,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 1c | 5,193$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 76c | 5,143$3,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed No | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 4,930$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 66c | 4,697$3,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.06 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 1c | 4,326$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked No | 1c | 4,045$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 5c | 4,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7e…875dbacked No | 0c | 3,707$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 3,597$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked No | 1c | 3,536$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 1c | 3,255$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 6c | 3,211$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…b572backed No | 1c | 3,201$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 3,182$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…8b53backed No | 1c | 3,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…9f3ebacked No | 1c | 2,978$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed No | 1c | 2,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…2fe5backed No | 2c | 2,799$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,788$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 1c | 2,714$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7b44backed No | 2c | 2,693$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…22e8backed No | 8c | 2,490$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed No | 2c | 2,475$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c9…5a9dbacked No | 0c | 2,467$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked No | 1c | 2,435$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…44e8backed No | 1c | 2,426$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…0a8cbacked No | 2c | 2,411$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 1c | 2,409$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 67c | 2,243$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0207…711dbacked Yes | 66c | 2,234$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…13dcbacked No | 1c | 2,130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…5f31backed No | 1c | 2,045$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…9550backed No | 0c | 2,028$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 1c | 2,016$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x190e…c21cbacked Yes | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 12c | 2,000$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…b3eebacked No | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…8a67backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed No | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,987$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 15c | 1,942$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 1,941$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.39 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,797$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb82…bf91backed No | 1c | 1,728$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebbc…8cbebacked No | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…99e4backed No | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…c0e8backed No | 1c | 1,608$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ae…064bbacked No | 1c | 1,511$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes | 68c | 1,462$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 1c | 1,384$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked No | 1c | 1,383$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…ad95backed No | 1c | 1,366$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd919…8e43backed No | 1c | 1,354$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…ea7ebacked No | 1c | 1,331$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3716…bb2dbacked No | 1c | 1,327$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 23c | 1,284$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816a…8df4backed No | 13c | 1,250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed No | 33c | 1,215$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 1c | 1,203$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…0953backed No | 1c | 1,173$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 1,132$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes | 76c | 1,132$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +193.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked Yes | 71c | 1,121$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 4c | 1,100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aaa…cc02backed No | 1c | 1,054$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd2…6ba2backed No | 1c | 1,033$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.