TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,117,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,161,965

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,117,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 312 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d9e…5421backed No1c74,453$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No2c47,125$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.611513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-68.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1437…acfebacked No0c38,047$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.191118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick9cpaid-51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No20c27,092$5,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.570%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bbf…f8edbacked No1c22,501$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dda…8244backed No1c19,400$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked No1c17,088$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f5…5374backed No3c16,987$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked No4c16,682$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.19156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-86%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c13,687$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.95640%0 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc822…a169backed No1c12,982$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c12,500$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fa9…732bbacked No1c11,208$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc4…8e5cbacked No2c10,728$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…d1e4backed No33c10,419$3,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.7560%0 W · 6 L-3.8wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x4e9f…3340backed No1c10,039$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c2…3a00backed No1c9,799$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c9,448$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.571274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c8,899$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.29190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce20…f382backed No2c8,892$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No20c8,783$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.26922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-60.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24d9…d6f1backed No1c8,731$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7789…a2cebacked No31c8,500$2,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,674.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No2c8,463$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.831338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No12c7,562$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.2911634.5%40 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a23…079fbacked Yes70c7,500$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff99…da49backed No1c7,124$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed No0c6,096$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No0c6,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18340%0 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No0c5,674$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.044418.2%8 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-71.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b5…280cbacked No2c5,663$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes67c5,514$3,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,820.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed No1c5,300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.72227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No1c5,193$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.01345.9%2 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-89.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa172…b716backed Yes76c5,143$3,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.49825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed No1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c4,930$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.12610%0 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes66c4,697$3,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.061926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b4…6709backed No1c4,326$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.173020%6 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked No1c4,045$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No5c4,000$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd7e…875dbacked No0c3,707$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c3,597$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.61500%0 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked No1c3,536$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked No1c3,255$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed No6c3,211$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2df…b572backed No1c3,201$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3590%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No1c3,182$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.38110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8a…8b53backed No1c3,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e2d…9f3ebacked No1c2,978$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed No1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c74…2fe5backed No2c2,799$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c2,788$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No1c2,714$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.14280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7b44backed No2c2,693$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6785…22e8backed No8c2,490$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2750%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7577…8fb9backed No2c2,475$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.081010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c9…5a9dbacked No0c2,467$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked No1c2,435$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.35260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x137b…44e8backed No1c2,426$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.36825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3971…0a8cbacked No2c2,411$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No1c2,409$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.45260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked Yes67c2,243$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.87837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0207…711dbacked Yes66c2,234$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1950…13dcbacked No1c2,130$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcac4…5f31backed No1c2,045$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6630…9550backed No0c2,028$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No1c2,016$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.14112.2%5 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x190e…c21cbacked Yes69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6201100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed No12c2,000$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.53116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7166…b3eebacked No31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6623…8a67backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed No1c2,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No1c1,987$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No15c1,942$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.331127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes78c1,941$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.3914425.7%37 W · 107 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No1c1,797$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb82…bf91backed No1c1,728$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebbc…8cbebacked No1c1,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5992…99e4backed No1c1,667$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3526…c0e8backed No1c1,608$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ae…064bbacked No1c1,511$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes68c1,462$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No1c1,384$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.76110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc7…302dbacked No1c1,383$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae4…ad95backed No1c1,366$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd919…8e43backed No1c1,354$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6904…ea7ebacked No1c1,331$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3716…bb2dbacked No1c1,327$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No23c1,284$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.242245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x816a…8df4backed No13c1,250$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed No33c1,215$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed No1c1,203$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4648…0953backed No1c1,173$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c1,132$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.31333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes76c1,132$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+193.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d93…f70abacked Yes71c1,121$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+100.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No4c1,100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.892623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7aaa…cc02backed No1c1,054$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd2…6ba2backed No1c1,033$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.