IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x132ff62c3e4687197a232df28ae76de614c54421fd650a208aafb8c20dc154e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $557,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $547,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $557,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 7c | 92,936$6,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,826.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…77f1backed Yes | 5c | 79,227$4,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 6c | 16,800$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes | 6c | 15,488$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 6c | 10,883$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 9c | 10,630$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes | 15c | 10,195$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 4c | 8,768$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac8…7b39backed Yes | 6c | 7,018$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 6,691$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.52 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…f137backed Yes | 7c | 6,400$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…447cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,985$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…0720backed Yes | 6c | 5,300$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,854$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 5c | 4,545$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 7c | 4,160$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.17 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…836bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,807$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,784$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,261$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 6c | 3,089$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 5c | 3,086$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 2,954$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.98 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 6c | 2,905$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…9cc5backed Yes | 4c | 2,818$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c2…8832backed Yes | 4c | 2,602$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…4d05backed Yes | 8c | 2,072$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 2,049$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…315ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,967$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,952$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,802$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,800$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 1,510$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…654abacked Yes | 9c | 1,418$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,202$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,199$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 5c | 1,137$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,132$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,097$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,093$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 3c | 1,088$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8344…1e09backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 4c | 955.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…3e53backed Yes | 5c | 842.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 832.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…706ebacked Yes | 6c | 775.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e1…cf05backed Yes | 7c | 734.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…3542backed Yes | 8c | 670.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…71dabacked Yes | 8c | 564.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 43c | 557$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.49 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.52per pick | 39cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 4c | 536.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…1c40backed Yes | 7c | 535.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 9c | 534.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 520$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked Yes | 9c | 463$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 372$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719f…0d90backed Yes | 5c | 353.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 4c | 320.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…6b31backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 10c | 254$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cce…0792backed Yes | 6c | 246.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 5c | 235$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…ca47backed Yes | 6c | 229.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…1388backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…f39cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…ce1fbacked Yes | 6c | 161.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 68c | 122.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.