IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5ffcfa3e5fd5edff7edee4db111e7035439c62a463021ad0f38a32f66647f3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,100,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,046,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,100,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 395 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 1c | 111,500$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 5c | 40,898$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed No | 6c | 38,374$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…24e0backed No | 5c | 35,293$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 1c | 22,226$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d9…ecd7backed No | 5c | 20,931$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed No | 13c | 18,675$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…ee23backed No | 5c | 16,280$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 8c | 15,900$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.52 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 14,833$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.77 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…155dbacked No | 14c | 14,546$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 6c | 14,000$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 6c | 13,784$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.9 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…0beabacked No | 9c | 12,200$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 16c | 11,962$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.7 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…baedbacked No | 7c | 11,535$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…0a39backed No | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…8da0backed No | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 44c | 9,571$4,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,320.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed No | 7c | 8,857$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed No | 7c | 8,101$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked No | 6c | 8,078$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed No | 18c | 7,950$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…b7ddbacked No | 8c | 7,536$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed No | 8c | 7,036$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1c…0d22backed No | 4c | 6,932$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 0c | 6,709$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…cbddbacked No | 9c | 6,287$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…be41backed No | 6c | 5,583$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 9c | 5,394$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 5,250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 10c | 5,232$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 7c | 5,200$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.28 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e1a8backed No | 7c | 4,820$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 4,494$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.6 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked No | 10c | 4,346$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 7c | 4,309$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.78 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 4,290$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.73 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 4,284$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.2 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…5c76backed No | 8c | 4,250$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…f00abacked No | 7c | 4,224$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed No | 8c | 4,200$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…daa6backed No | 8c | 4,137$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked No | 9c | 4,021$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed No | 4c | 4,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…03b8backed No | 9c | 3,975$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…137abacked No | 5c | 3,964$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fd…01e6backed No | 4c | 3,796$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed No | 7c | 3,739$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 3,322$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.32 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd2…6ba2backed No | 7c | 3,046$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 3,007$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.14 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 2,986$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.01 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 5c | 2,822$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…b3a8backed No | 5c | 2,744$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 19c | 2,625$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 6c | 2,600$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.9 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…b9aebacked No | 4c | 2,552$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…7c0abacked No | 7c | 2,500$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0b…5f9dbacked No | 8c | 2,459$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 1c | 2,400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 60c | 2,314$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…3340backed No | 7c | 2,132$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…aee7backed No | 9c | 2,120$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed No | 9c | 2,109$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e9…6d78backed No | 5c | 2,101$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 8c | 2,091$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a5…def9backed No | 4c | 2,080$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…7599backed Yes | 45c | 2,073$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked No | 6c | 2,025$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…c1b8backed No | 5c | 2,021$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed No | 5c | 2,018$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…1391backed No | 4c | 2,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5afe…af69backed Yes | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5149…1fc0backed No | 9c | 2,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed No | 8c | 1,982$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed No | 8c | 1,951$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…8718backed No | 5c | 1,940$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…0df2backed No | 5c | 1,923$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b81…074abacked No | 5c | 1,910$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…500bbacked No | 5c | 1,887$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 6c | 1,837$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 4c | 1,826$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 8c | 1,812$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed2…9d82backed No | 6c | 1,760$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…75f7backed No | 9c | 1,743$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…918ebacked No | 5c | 1,612$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 7c | 1,579$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed No | 70c | 1,512$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…e210backed No | 8c | 1,501$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 8c | 1,500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c94…b7ddbacked No | 5c | 1,500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 5c | 1,500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5494…faacbacked Yes | 34c | 1,462$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…c9fbbacked No | 5c | 1,402$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…71edbacked Yes | 71c | 1,401$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0842…a7bfbacked No | 5c | 1,366$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…9c22backed No | 71c | 1,352$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.