TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xee6b…baed

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
29
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$4,466Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+248.9%+$11,115.17
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,034Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,033.61
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$464.77
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$320.87
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+64.3%+$257.21
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+61.8%+$61.81
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+286.4%+$265.05
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$196.68
Iran military response by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT+35.1%+$17.68
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+63.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bulls vs. Timberwolvesbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+218.3%+$178.61
Rockets vs. 76ersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.91
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$16.74
Spurs vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+235.3%+$36.11
All 4 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Oilersbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+29.9%+$23
Penguins vs. Flamesbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$3.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$104
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$98.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$194.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lafayette Leopards vs. Boston Terriersbacked Lafayette Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$11.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.