TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
O'Malleyof Yadong, O'Malley
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,172,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,291,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,172,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b15…9b08backed Yadong10c269,478$28,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,257.4129151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Yadong35c206,455$72,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,259.143842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Yadong35c143,312$50,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,159.0519544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Yadong35c120,000$42,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,233.085440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed O'Malley65c117,423$76,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,843.987245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Yadong34c108,283$36,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,733.363447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked O'Malley65c82,081$53,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,949.894040%16 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Yadong34c71,408$24,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,278.731844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yadong34c65,219$22,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,174.5626743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed O'Malley65c56,546$36,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,790.984465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed O'Malley65c54,063$35,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,904.5714558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed O'Malley66c53,130$34,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,190.336850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed O'Malley68c52,603$35,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,853.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked O'Malley56c51,772$28,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,915.2815939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Yadong11c51,259$5,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,402.812552%13 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed O'Malley65c50,771$33,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,723.897233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed O'Malley67c42,079$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,078.923458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked O'Malley65c37,500$24,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,124.9437152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked O'Malley66c32,309$21,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,984.981861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed O'Malley66c30,000$19,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Yadong31c28,725$8,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,953.548434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Yadong34c28,606$9,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,589.891163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b17…abcdbacked O'Malley66c27,273$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,272.734100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5dea…e9debacked O'Malley66c23,000$15,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,8161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f67…4dd8backed O'Malley66c21,490$14,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,306.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Yadong35c20,180$7,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,002.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed O'Malley66c20,004$13,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,747.537653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Yadong35c20,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0002733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yadong34c20,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,799.9516049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked O'Malley61c18,898$11,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,399.293737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d04…7a5fbacked O'Malley63c17,375$10,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,428.581478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick55cpaid+69.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Yadong34c15,870$5,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,400.7635253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed O'Malley65c15,000$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,250366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed O'Malley66c14,500$9,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9306346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked O'Malley65c14,326$9,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,038.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dc6…9889backed Yadong35c14,285$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.754942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fae…78f1backed Yadong36c13,872$4,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,993.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Yadong34c13,000$4,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,419.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Yadong35c12,500$4,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3752254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed O'Malley52c11,907$6,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,743.3427448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Yadong35c11,579$4,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,082.6228849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed O'Malley65c11,360$7,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,975.9619154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed O'Malley66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4003636.1%13 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed O'Malley65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5002100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed O'Malley66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4002240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yadong35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.9611746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed O'Malley64c9,158$5,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,296.751040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b63…1147backed O'Malley66c8,828$5,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.48771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8a…e842backed O'Malley66c8,818$5,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,998.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Yadong31c8,558$2,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,636.1990553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1307…d640backed O'Malley66c7,879$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,678.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed O'Malley63c7,429$4,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.7833132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Yadong35c7,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked O'Malley61c6,733$4,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.320139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked O'Malley33c6,646$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,430.113860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf40…87debacked O'Malley66c6,061$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.613441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c9c…74b3backed Yadong34c6,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Yadong37c5,800$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1461735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94e4…2943backed O'Malley66c5,708$3,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yadong35c5,571$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9502030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked O'Malley65c5,541$3,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.7542054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Yadong35c5,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9252532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yadong50c5,394$2,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,695.453625%9 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked O'Malley44c5,354$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,984.7430039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048b…09efbacked Yadong35c5,334$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Yadong34c5,084$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked O'Malley43c5,027$2,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,880.715653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed O'Malley65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7506354%34 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4db0…d3eabacked Yadong36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.842035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yadong44c4,809$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.8553956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Yadong1c4,555$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.491662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed O'Malley66c4,400$2,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4963650%18 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Yadong72c4,244$3,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,056.911060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yadong55c4,211$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.864228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yadong39c4,047$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.837233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked O'Malley65c4,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.995437%20 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc3c…3403backed Yadong39c3,939$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Yadong72c3,928$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,830.814245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Yadong36c3,883$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3982552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked O'Malley65c3,883$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked O'Malley66c3,864$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.645044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…a54dbacked O'Malley66c3,833$2,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yadong67c3,743$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.36per pick45cpaid-83.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed O'Malley66c3,696$2,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.56475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+67.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Yadong28c3,618$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.128248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed O'Malley66c3,571$2,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.141145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Yadong40c3,500$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.8613650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x069c…c844backed O'Malley67c3,487$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Yadong56c3,286$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.2120954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc96…5307backed O'Malley65c3,183$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.91366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Yadong35c3,100$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.861936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed Yadong35c3,020$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.96425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-63.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90c7…81f1backed Yadong35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Yadong33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.995244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed O'Malley30c3,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.985152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed O'Malley65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.9915641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7deb…2682backed O'Malley67c2,985$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.07922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x880e…54edbacked Yadong34c2,894$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9841442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yadong34c2,869$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.6118038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Yadong35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005431.5%17 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.