UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04ae75f0b99c721e5f79050439c79e9c436e2872f309c010128d3b5620b05574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 75c | 1,491$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.08 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 25c | 769.08$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.27 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 26c | 700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad9…6b63backed Under | 34c | 570$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Over | 70c | 410$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 66c | 352.72$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Under | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Under | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 29c | 100.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Over | 71c | 100.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd913…2cf7backed Over | 70c | 71.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 65c | 42.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f1…d83fbacked Under | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)O'Malley won
- Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.