UFC · resolved market
Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32e8605fea9a1c38d4897155c437e52a32850dffe105618991448e82211b498d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc3c…3403backed Yes | 28c | 1,598$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 72c | 1,024$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.31 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 73c | 954.21$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.41 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 78c | 528.31$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.16 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7477…e718backed Yes | 22c | 484$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 17c | 354.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…d22ebacked Yes | 17c | 300.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ca…4f9ebacked Yes | 17c | 294.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…c07fbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…1e41backed Yes | 17c | 139.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…1d82backed Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…fde9backed Yes | 16c | 114.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…daecbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…541fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…4c2ebacked Yes | 26c | 97.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 25c | 80.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…dc8abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)O'Malley won
- Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.