UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa2bc2b713fcfe18c1a1ca1200ac820ccf6b736a984e6b7391ecea0404473116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Yes | 63c | 11,782$7,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,384.26 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5836…4d03backed Yes | 66c | 6,000$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 34c | 5,363$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.31 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 36c | 3,231$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed No | 47c | 2,246$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 64c | 2,155$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.23 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 39c | 2,068$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.36per pick | 45cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 61c | 1,744$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.97 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed No | 35c | 1,477$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed No | 35c | 1,250$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 32c | 1,158$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.78 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed No | 35c | 1,127$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 66c | 839.47$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.46 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8d…c822backed No | 34c | 637.32$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f4…5e6bbacked No | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +82%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 35c | 529.87$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.45 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Yes | 62c | 515.14$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.75 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 33c | 472.84$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.04 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 61c | 429.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.69 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 62c | 402$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.76 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 61c | 334.48$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed No | 37c | 317.57$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…c17fbacked No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac2…727bbacked No | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Yes | 67c | 253.96$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 66c | 249.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…0915backed No | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 35c | 172.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…6b6bbacked Yes | 66c | 151.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 149.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e5…1d48backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe665…79bbbacked No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…047ebacked No | 38c | 133.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…a96dbacked No | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bd…1cd0backed No | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e7…7da3backed No | 37c | 85.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…919cbacked No | 37c | 78.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb294…0e2bbacked Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c4…5708backed No | 39c | 66.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Yes | 66c | 60.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…078abacked No | 37c | 56.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…0fbbbacked No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ca…4f9ebacked No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…d2f8backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60af…6308backed No | 40c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 65c | 42.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…87a1backed Yes | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…8cafbacked Yes | 65c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)O'Malley won
- Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.