TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x72f1…d83f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: UFC, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 53 out of 100; worst MLB at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST4156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$24
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$44.88
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Fiziev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Saint Denis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$15.02
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+212.5%+$31.88
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$72
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+51.5%+$24.21
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Royval · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$56
UFC Fight Night: Charrière vs. Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Charrière · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$54
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+168.4%+$38.45
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+194.1%+$23.29
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Oliveira vs. Gamrotbacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
Ankalaev vs. Pereirabacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$42.5
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Poirier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$14.46
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-Francebacked Pantoja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$8.17
UFC 317: Royval vs. Vanbacked Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckleybacked Buckley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. Barcelosbacked Garbrandt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Malik vs. Brundagebacked Brundage · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malleybacked O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Gastelum vs. Pyferbacked Pyfer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$4.48
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST1540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Spread: Rams (-6.5)backed Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Steelers vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+53.8%+$43.41
Texans vs. Seahawksbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Falcons vs. 49ersbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: Eagles (-1.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
Falcons vs. Vikingsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+150%+$22.49
Will Dan Campbell win NFL Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Falcons vs. Commandersbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Falcons vs. Vikingsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Texans vs. Cowboysbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+29.9%+$14.94
Bengals vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST+88.7%+$26.6
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2024, EST+111%+$55.47
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+56.3%+$13.5
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+56.3%+$11.1
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+96.1%+$72.62
Hawks vs. Spursbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+66.7%+$16
Pistons vs. Bullsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
Pistons vs. Knicksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Pistons vs. Trail Blazersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Pistons vs. Warriorsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Alabama Crimson Tide · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+132.6%+$19.88
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-5.5)backed Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+72.4%+$31.14
Michigan vs. Texas A&Mbacked Texas A&M · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 3 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mets vs. Yankeesbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Dodgers vs. Bravesbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 3 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+47.1%+$47.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15.63
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.