TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,798
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$193,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,798 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Over46c66,500$30,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,820.7647348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under52c62,487$32,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,045.5586547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over49c42,736$20,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,826.753348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Under54c40,000$21,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,40011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Under54c30,000$16,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,80016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7004358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over46c8,888$4,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,088.4824056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over46c7,847$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,609.5277052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Over46c7,020$3,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.3114154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over46c6,734$3,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,097.7883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Under54c5,736$3,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.5215555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Over47c5,655$2,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6582955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Over20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked Over46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3004949%24 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Under54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8402454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Over46c3,678$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.885650%28 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Over46c3,500$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61019651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under80c3,250$2,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.8631543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over46c2,661$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.064761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Under53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17514757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Under54c2,222$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.2212249.2%60 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Under55c2,183$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.192343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over41c2,119$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.673651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under50c1,600$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80039754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c1,580$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.011,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over19c1,575$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.4850242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Over46c1,344$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.1313450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over47c1,230$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.811,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Over7c1,174$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over49c1,125$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.2620238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Over45c1,089$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.9839242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Under72c1,075$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.534264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.09966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Over46c836$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.564555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over3c817.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5264747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under54c679$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.3465048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020443.6%89 W · 115 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under55c454.55$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.557850%39 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over33c424.24$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14013652.2%71 W · 65 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c3…3242backed Over47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14111946.2%55 W · 64 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Under54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.783023.3%7 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under54c275.8$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8754451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over46c266.1$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4116551.5%85 W · 80 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under54c255.73$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.648345.8%38 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over47c255.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Over46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Over49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under54c190$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.455345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a25…c24dbacked Under54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.198143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under51c155.08$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9983447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.524243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ba…2a14backed Over47c146.49$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.853743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under80c143$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.635648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Under54c118$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2844652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c7…4f5ebacked Under55c111.11$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked Over46c110.87$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511080%8 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+69.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c12…042fbacked Under55c109.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.096546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4759453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Under55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4513845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked Over18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.519124.6%47 W · 144 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfaea…a809backed Under54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.592650%13 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Under54c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.22458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Over46c65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.92360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under71c59.63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.22572%18 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a38…7446backed Over46c57.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.36742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf171…3be5backed Over22c54.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under53c53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0419152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Over45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.529751.5%153 W · 144 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Under55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.523447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under51c49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0141450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Over46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016048.1%77 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…5c69backed Over47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205131.4%16 W · 35 L-8.0wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-27.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Over48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016940.8%69 W · 100 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under52c41.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2032050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked Under54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0422053.2%117 W · 103 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf6…0edfbacked Over47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72f1…d83fbacked Over47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.656852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e3d…d3e6backed Under55c27.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.221346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e5…a260backed Over47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.751145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over47c21.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3430442.4%129 W · 175 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x929f…def4backed Under55c18.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.035066%33 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.