NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe208d45e8fe885d579c1d2a8160ea1f7e5c398ba93fa8c2ccdd7dd1b8218b99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Chiefs, Texans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $403,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $414,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 48c | 267,132$128,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128,190.38 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Texans | 52c | 250,000$130,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119,975 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Chiefs | 49c | 60,000$29,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,400 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Texans | 52c | 59,740$30,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,872.39 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Texans | 51c | 22,369$11,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,850.63 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Texans | 51c | 8,569$4,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,198.83 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Texans | 51c | 7,500$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Texans | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texans | 51c | 5,765$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,825.33 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Texans | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Texans | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texans | 52c | 3,615$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.37 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Texans | 51c | 3,166$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.3 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…2546backed Texans | 52c | 3,077$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Chiefs | 48c | 3,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Texans | 52c | 2,621$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.15 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Texans | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Texans | 53c | 1,785$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.57 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs | 48c | 1,371$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.17 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Texans | 52c | 1,075$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.83 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…09e2backed Texans | 71c | 855.89$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.19 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Texans | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…1c8fbacked Texans | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Chiefs | 48c | 576.92$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.92 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed78…f62bbacked Texans | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Texans | 52c | 507$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Chiefs | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Texans | 53c | 473.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.51 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Texans | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Chiefs | 49c | 245$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Texans | 51c | 228.07$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.75 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Texans | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Chiefs | 49c | 204.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Texans | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Chiefs | 47c | 119$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Chiefs | 45c | 105.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Texans | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…a1a1backed Texans | 51c | 52.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Texans | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Texans | 54c | 38.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Texans | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Chiefs | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…8e34backed Texans | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Texans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…68e2backed Chiefs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Texans won
- Texans vs. ChiefsTexans won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 29.5Over won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 30.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 33.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 43.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.