NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x972217f80ac9a94332f04d08700fa869ea8a47e5e7a74b93467f7e1dced6f97b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Chiefs, Texans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $528,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $549,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $528,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs | 49c | 198,787$98,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98,133.29 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Texans | 51c | 75,000$37,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,100 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Texans | 50c | 50,000$25,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,900.14 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Texans | 51c | 40,000$20,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,800 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Texans | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,399.99 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Texans | 49c | 30,745$15,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,679.95 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Texans | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Texans | 50c | 19,977$9,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,023.22 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Chiefs | 51c | 18,845$9,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,543.21 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Chiefs | 51c | 15,554$7,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,854.77 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Chiefs | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Texans | 49c | 14,000$6,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,139.99 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs | 50c | 12,701$6,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,335.42 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Texans | 55c | 10,538$5,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,743.31 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Texans | 51c | 9,999$5,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.51 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Chiefs | 50c | 9,755$4,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,877.35 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 51c | 8,963$4,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,549.89 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…58a6backed Texans | 49c | 7,930$3,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,044.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Texans | 50c | 7,006$3,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,503 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texans | 50c | 6,997$3,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,498.58 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Texans | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Texans | 51c | 5,880$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,881.22 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Texans | 70c | 5,000$3,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texans | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe796…7f5ebacked Chiefs | 27c | 3,512$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.6 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Chiefs | 49c | 3,500$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Chiefs | 51c | 3,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Texans | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1862backed Chiefs | 51c | 2,940$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.25 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Texans | 51c | 2,050$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chiefs | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Chiefs | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa832…e6febacked Chiefs | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Texans | 80c | 1,858$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.6 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Chiefs | 49c | 1,692$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Texans | 51c | 1,582$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.78 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Chiefs | 51c | 1,504$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.04 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Chiefs | 51c | 1,194$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chiefs | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Texans | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Chiefs | 51c | 950$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.5 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Texans | 50c | 769.94$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.2 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Texans | 50c | 650$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Texans | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Chiefs | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Chiefs | 50c | 566.2$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Texans | 50c | 543.36$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.68 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…56aebacked Texans | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Chiefs | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Chiefs | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…ff36backed Texans | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Texans | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…6282backed Chiefs | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Chiefs | 51c | 399$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Texans | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Chiefs | 50c | 380$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Texans | 50c | 380$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Chiefs | 50c | 300.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Texans | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…09e2backed Texans | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Texans | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Chiefs | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Texans | 54c | 280$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed Texans | 56c | 242.16$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Chiefs | 46c | 242$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Texans | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Texans | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Texans | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Chiefs | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Chiefs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Chiefs | 51c | 198$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14e…f856backed Texans | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Texans | 79c | 152$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Texans | 51c | 134.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Texans | 49c | 125$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Chiefs | 40c | 113.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Texans | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Texans | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…a809backed Texans | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Chiefs | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…934ebacked Chiefs | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…050cbacked Chiefs | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…31c7backed Texans | 50c | 89.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Chiefs | 50c | 81.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Texans | 49c | 80.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Chiefs | 50c | 80.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Chiefs | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Chiefs | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Texans | 52c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…c457backed Texans | 51c | 62.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…1893backed Texans | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…49f1backed Chiefs | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…7b68backed Chiefs | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Chiefs | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Texans | 51c | 50.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Chiefs | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Chiefs | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Texans | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Chiefs | 28c | 49.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…a1a1backed Chiefs | 51c | 45.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Texans won
- Texans vs. ChiefsTexans won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 29.5Over won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 30.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 33.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 43.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.