TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texansof Chiefs, Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,173,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,161,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,173,580 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1af1…0f7bbacked Chiefs56c1,378,285$769,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769,743.681070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Texans44c500,000$220,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280,0001258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Texans44c400,000$176,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224,0007951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Texans45c261,568$117,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143,862.1919553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Texans45c195,554$88,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106,654.7111168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Texans44c129,692$57,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,627.5717041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Texans47c125,365$58,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,514.775648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs52c80,275$41,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,613.7786547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Texans47c39,653$18,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,039.2727454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Chiefs46c36,433$16,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,830.2373651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Texans62c27,344$16,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,524.5816955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Texans45c25,000$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,75013843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Texans45c20,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,999.9824652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e8f…52f4backed Chiefs34c19,920$6,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,772.65650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+63%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Chiefs53c19,620$10,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,398.6575852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Texans48c10,443$5,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,430.1413560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Texans51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Texans46c9,363$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,063.1414252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Texans45c8,667$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,766.675756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs54c7,144$3,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,832.371,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Texans52c7,029$3,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,373.763345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Chiefs53c6,858$3,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,632.3256852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texans45c5,691$2,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,13783147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Chiefs55c5,455$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3d5…05acbacked Chiefs17c5,326$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Texans46c5,300$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8621844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Texans47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6503444.1%15 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Chiefs32c4,969$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.0160049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Texans47c4,952$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,624.5621254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Chiefs53c4,694$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.1711255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d1…9d8fbacked Chiefs52c4,640$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,412.6920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Texans50c4,500$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Texans47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12019651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chiefs54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.9439447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Chiefs55c3,214$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf526…55c8backed Chiefs24c3,122$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.4180%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Texans48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56010142.6%43 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Chiefs50c2,818$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40944652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Texans47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.949657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b6…922fbacked Chiefs53c2,104$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x132a…abe8backed Chiefs44c2,064$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.821526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Texans51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9807464.9%48 W · 26 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5837…2dafbacked Chiefs56c1,792$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs54c1,612$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.5865048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Texans46c1,437$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.5977052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Chiefs52c1,346$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010555.2%58 W · 47 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texans66c1,307$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44650242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Chiefs54c1,296$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Texans47c1,201$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.624250%21 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…bc81backed Chiefs44c1,130$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.32520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Texans46c1,114$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.2447738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Texans48c1,041$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.3210156.4%57 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc7e…08fdbacked Chiefs55c1,009$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Texans47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+58%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea89…0b5fbacked Chiefs56c961.75$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.585046%23 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161c…3b03backed Texans49c950.56$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.095756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Chiefs51c913.73$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.6554451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs54c852.23$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.21,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Texans48c833.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.3315944%70 W · 89 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Texans46c823.59$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.749248.9%45 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8839…8a3ebacked Texans63c769.6$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.415648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ac…4a3cbacked Chiefs43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002035%7 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Texans46c653.91$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.1116551.5%85 W · 80 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef8…8712backed Texans48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3252556%14 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Chiefs53c605.19$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.65940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b48…050cbacked Texans51c600$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.922347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf8…4899backed Chiefs55c530.18$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.6110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Texans47c528$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.8414641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04ac…c7b0backed Chiefs54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Chiefs55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27526648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Texans45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27518745.5%85 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Chiefs48c499.98$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.9939242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6878…bec2backed Chiefs47c486.36$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2275151%26 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Chiefs55c474.82$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605164.7%33 W · 18 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+36.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Chiefs55c461.82$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+55.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Texans48c416$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.3213959%82 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Texans48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2088345.8%38 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Texans48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2087549.3%37 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Chiefs53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21253253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Texans53c400$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.1513845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd4…ea9abacked Texans65c391.52$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.721154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf4…c0e0backed Chiefs36c388.89$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Chiefs46c386.61$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1264747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Chiefs55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Texans49c363$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1331450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed57…e0a0backed Texans46c304$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.167955.7%44 W · 35 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01a8…e968backed Chiefs55c298.31$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.55944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Chiefs53c289.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6455345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Chiefs56c270$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.211740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3fc…823cbacked Texans46c256.52$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.522055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99f6…f838backed Texans46c255.87$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.178052.5%42 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8d3…02e4backed Chiefs46c250$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.51631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Texans46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1356756.7%38 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Texans48c249.97$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9820650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Chiefs26c239.95$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.296124.6%15 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Texans76c236$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.648847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Chiefs48c220$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.659453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Texans46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3917548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0585…5fa1backed Texans47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.772259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd976…7050backed Texans47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.771145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.