TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Texans vs. Chiefs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texansof Texans, Chiefs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,386,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,338,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,386,960 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Texans33c1,549,876$511,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038,417.1217041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e25…0af8backed Chiefs67c1,492,537$1,000,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999,999.941136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Chiefs67c600,000$402,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,0007951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Texans33c380,012$124,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255,281.4913843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0bc…af98backed Chiefs68c373,455$253,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253,949.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick67cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs23c270,605$61,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,292.4186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Texans56c224,620$125,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,431.9730043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Texans33c200,000$66,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134,00019553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Texans70c147,389$102,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,484.4516955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Texans33c137,268$45,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,316.910333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Texans33c134,679$44,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,234.791936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Texans33c120,100$39,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,6675431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Chiefs12c112,115$13,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,007.5420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Chiefs67c103,291$69,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,204.7124957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Texans34c95,338$32,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,854.475648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Texans51c82,136$41,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,375.3720755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Chiefs66c70,385$46,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,454.0916836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Chiefs52c69,589$36,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,009.7873651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf97a…30b7backed Chiefs61c64,157$39,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,310.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Texans32c60,000$19,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,80030743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Chiefs65c50,000$32,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,499.825453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Texans51c49,938$25,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,500.033345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Chiefs4c46,493$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.7918156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Texans35c42,857$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,857.0316545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Texans34c42,526$14,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,066.9847738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Texans34c40,000$13,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,399.9414342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Chiefs57c37,952$21,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,787.8824652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Chiefs64c34,558$22,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,280.0144652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Texans54c33,610$18,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,493.3875852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Texans33c33,271$11,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,177.0453348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Texans34c30,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,80016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Texans43c29,923$12,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,943.937255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Texans35c29,506$10,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,114.1214951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Chiefs66c25,000$16,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,50030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Texans34c25,000$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,499.93742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Chiefs31c24,506$7,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,497.562740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Chiefs26c22,813$5,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,931.276240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chiefs54c21,740$11,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,754.8827348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Texans34c21,206$7,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,983.6847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Texans50c20,105$10,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,054.96459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea5b…d88dbacked Chiefs26c19,040$5,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,008.89728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8839…8a3ebacked Chiefs4c18,983$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.435648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Texans34c18,090$6,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,939.415850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Chiefs48c17,029$8,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,130.287736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a4…75c1backed Texans38c16,684$6,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,292.2718658.1%108 W · 78 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Chiefs42c16,302$6,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,858.3811643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Texans33c15,185$5,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,173.856965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Texans33c15,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,049.944358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Texans35c15,000$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,749.8816226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Texans41c14,611$5,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,684.629754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9dd…3cc5backed Texans39c14,379$5,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,804.81931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Texans78c14,200$11,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,07011254.5%61 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Texans37c14,161$5,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,991.335356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Chiefs65c14,153$9,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,199.454365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32eb…0c1bbacked Chiefs68c13,269$8,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,985.432462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked Texans74c12,817$9,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,332.472065%13 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Texans75c12,298$9,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,132.474671.7%33 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aec…615dbacked Chiefs66c11,969$7,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,952.37425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chiefs40c11,454$4,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,637.4650242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Texans38c11,145$4,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,960.9823937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Texans33c11,138$3,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,459.561,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Chiefs54c10,605$5,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,726.82740.7%11 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89e…fb60backed Texans50c10,580$5,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,313.081770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Chiefs47c10,567$4,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,971.177534.7%26 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Chiefs38c10,345$3,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,888.9523244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Chiefs67c10,004$6,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,702.8619645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Chiefs49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Chiefs67c9,888$6,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,658.2924056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Chiefs52c9,635$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa78f…72dbbacked Chiefs68c9,606$6,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,532.1470%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Chiefs48c9,500$4,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,52526547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Chiefs65c9,209$6,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,028.8811544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Chiefs67c8,788$5,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,876.421254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae6a…faf4backed Chiefs55c8,710$4,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,790.592240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Texans52c8,684$4,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,188.242250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Texans33c8,606$2,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,754.861,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Chiefs28c8,546$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.379536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Chiefs68c8,500$5,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7808856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Chiefs43c8,420$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6007626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf472…75c2backed Chiefs65c8,283$5,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,383.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67c5…ea5ebacked Texans35c8,275$2,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,378.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Texans36c8,100$2,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1938351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Chiefs45c7,447$3,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,330.8612138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Chiefs40c7,329$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,933.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+92.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Chiefs43c6,982$2,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,987.3615944%70 W · 89 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Chiefs59c6,846$4,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,027.114248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Chiefs49c6,776$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,320.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Chiefs55c6,455$3,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,531.4310648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Chiefs33c6,421$2,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,137.4527644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5837…2dafbacked Chiefs68c6,414$4,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,361.2230%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Texans65c6,346$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.738540%34 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81a6…9c48backed Texans46c6,163$2,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,306.463834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Chiefs66c6,037$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Chiefs66c6,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9603444.1%15 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Texans33c5,946$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,983.7612744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Chiefs37c5,680$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.8168446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Chiefs1c5,555$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.774634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7546…3a91backed Chiefs35c5,061$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.565230.8%16 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Texans35c5,030$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,270.37464.9%48 W · 26 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Texans75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2505472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.