NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd734d4d35cbe2715ecfd0f3a7df45ca39ddebcb04e01e66ccd0e530db9c76448
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Chiefs, Texans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Texans | 67c | 32,215$21,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,772.61 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…be79backed Texans | 58c | 31,303$18,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,147.36 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chiefs | 42c | 25,121$10,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,596.78 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chiefs | 43c | 15,717$6,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,684.28 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Chiefs | 43c | 13,184$5,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,616.19 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Chiefs | 20c | 5,459$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.8 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Chiefs | 31c | 4,900$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chiefs | 23c | 4,400$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.74 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Texans | 57c | 3,899$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.41 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…ae61backed Texans | 57c | 3,885$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.7 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Texans | 56c | 3,696$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.3 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…20fbbacked Texans | 63c | 2,396$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Chiefs | 44c | 2,291$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.89 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Chiefs | 43c | 1,893$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.97 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Texans | 57c | 1,741$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.22 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chiefs | 42c | 1,284$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.28 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Chiefs | 44c | 1,220$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.4 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Chiefs | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…05acbacked Chiefs | 10c | 880$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chiefs | 42c | 662$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.04 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Chiefs | 37c | 556.69$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.59 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Texans | 59c | 483.63$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.29 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Chiefs | 44c | 463.34$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.87 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chiefs | 43c | 450.4$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.67 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Texans | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Texans | 57c | 378.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Chiefs | 9c | 330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Chiefs | 43c | 320.93$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Texans | 57c | 315.79$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chiefs | 23c | 280$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Texans | 58c | 260.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Texans | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Chiefs | 20c | 190$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Texans | 59c | 186.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Chiefs | 18c | 179$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Texans | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Texans | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Texans | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b85…ca63backed Texans | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Chiefs | 44c | 152.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Texans | 58c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Chiefs | 20c | 127.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9479…cf2dbacked Texans | 71c | 107.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Texans | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Chiefs | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Chiefs | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Texans | 58c | 99.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…2a30backed Texans | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Chiefs | 44c | 91.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Chiefs | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…0710backed Texans | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Chiefs | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6f…778fbacked Texans | 77c | 74.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Texans | 56c | 53.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…91ebbacked Chiefs | 27c | 50.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Texans | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…9f0ebacked Chiefs | 44c | 45.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…d4e3backed Texans | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Texans | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…db6abacked Texans | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Chiefs | 41c | 25.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…2e0cbacked Texans | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Texans | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Texans | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Texans | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Texans won
- Texans vs. ChiefsTexans won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 29.5Over won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 30.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 33.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 43.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.