NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ef73c65b7a3d2800acf4be242b3aedc4a883f953ef9be9e0e2c1666298e5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Over | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Under | 50c | 43,694$21,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,847 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Under | 51c | 29,999$15,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,699.65 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9146…5f30backed Over | 49c | 28,040$13,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,739.6 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 15,000$7,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,450 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 50c | 9,478$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,728.49 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 8,754$4,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,377 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 50c | 7,777$3,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,888.5 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Under | 50c | 7,727$3,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,863.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 6,652$3,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,266.65 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 50c | 5,658$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 5,429$2,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,718.6 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 4,871$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,386.89 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 50c | 4,126$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.88 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 50c | 1,908$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 1,268$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.3 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Under | 52c | 1,081$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.77 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 880$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 534$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…9b30backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Under | 50c | 198.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…837dbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Over | 51c | 177.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 163.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b11…5568backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 99.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…60b9backed Over | 51c | 42.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…8e34backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…f9c1backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5this page
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)Texans won
- Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Texans won
- Texans vs. ChiefsTexans won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 29.5Over won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 30.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 33.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 42.5Under won
- Texans vs. Chiefs: O/U 43.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.