TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 317: Royval vs. Van

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vanof Royval, Van
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$817,801
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$859,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $817,801 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9708…925bbacked Van55c328,261$179,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148,429.79933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Royval45c150,000$67,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,5007853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Royval48c118,829$56,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,672.5535253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Royval45c93,888$42,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,050.833751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Royval47c55,250$25,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,805.612147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Van52c51,345$26,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,522.12548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Royval46c25,743$11,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,860.1910447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Van52c23,808$12,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,376.731643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Van53c21,604$11,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,153.7710542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Van52c21,377$11,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,247.362653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Van53c17,652$9,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,229.73961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Van51c16,649$8,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,079.4114857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Van53c16,043$8,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,484.5216951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Van52c15,012$7,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,2063259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Van53c13,250$7,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,227.494742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Royval47c12,973$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,100.242958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x460f…9eb7backed Van53c10,521$5,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,944.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Van62c10,003$6,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,779.066051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Royval20c9,494$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.661338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Van62c8,672$5,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,330.414530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Van52c8,000$4,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,819.9913453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Van53c7,559$4,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,552.77233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Royval43c7,400$3,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200.7220954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Royval33c6,454$2,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.2810443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Van54c6,439$3,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Van53c6,011$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,811.41675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Van52c4,193$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.542751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Royval48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Royval47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.981723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Van53c3,832$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.639959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed Van54c3,648$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.08977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Royval45c3,300$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Royval49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Van60c2,936$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.569336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Van52c2,683$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.982948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Royval49c2,615$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.2614929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Royval41c2,412$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.9511540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Van52c2,400$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1521770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Royval46c2,154$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked Royval47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Royval48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9606050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa9…b9bbbacked Van53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.79560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Van53c1,870$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.816645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Van52c1,853$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.9436745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0688…d67dbacked Van54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.855265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Van54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.855044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Van53c1,826$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.2318453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Royval48c1,681$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.913933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Royval48c1,666$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.6825251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Royval45c1,556$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.233253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Royval48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Royval49c1,500$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.995536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Royval48c1,492$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71612541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Van54c1,399$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.53458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Royval41c1,333$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.8526451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Royval45c1,248$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.178835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked Royval41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+123.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Royval36c1,089$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.4823537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Royval47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4704042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Royval47c999.99$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.996349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Van53c929$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Van55c914.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.91666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+57.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Van56c900.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.272540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4847…a5c2backed Royval47c843.97$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Royval47c820.35$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.5610149.5%50 W · 51 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Royval33c802.7$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.553933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Royval46c800$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36842042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Royval48c800$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3843171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Van53c799.46$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.7310041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7774…15d4backed Royval48c788.96$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.73661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7225…293abacked Van65c756.92$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe895…b06ebacked Royval48c730$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Royval46c720$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.36946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Royval48c666.67$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3843…b77cbacked Van53c660.91$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.98944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Royval48c653.28$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.722753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Royval38c633$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.552944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Royval48c619.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.1848749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Van53c600.69$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.323661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e6…a7febacked Royval38c584.73$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fe…3a0ebacked Van52c580$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Van53c575$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.2513953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0584…de3ebacked Van53c565.37$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.72580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+54.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c77…a901backed Royval49c550$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.51723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Van55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.451968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Van75c530.22$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.226555.4%36 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Van65c519.04$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Van53c500$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.532545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb4…ce44backed Royval25c500$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Royval46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2308256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Van75c493.11$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2837754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d88…8d8ebacked Van51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Royval35c489.1$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4922342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Royval46c480.43$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22121044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Van53c468.09$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22018145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Van54c449.34$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.3410650.9%54 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae8…b7d8backed Royval47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Royval46c420.13$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2637152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x804a…6c38backed Royval39c418.77$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf3…6192backed Royval48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.