UFC · resolved market
UFC 317: Price vs. Smith
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dba2fe7d9a39b618f784fd48c4a2ea8dab4dca319b4de3e37505af9e3b83389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Smithof Price, Smith
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $336,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $343,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Price | 8c | 236,660$18,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,666.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Price | 8c | 11,463$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.17 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Price | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Price | 10c | 8,038$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.58 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Price | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Price | 7c | 4,850$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.02 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Price | 9c | 2,671$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.21 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Price | 6c | 2,481$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Price | 9c | 1,579$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Price | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…012abacked Price | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Price | 8c | 1,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Price | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…a806backed Price | 8c | 1,114$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Price | 11c | 1,020$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…9af1backed Price | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Price | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Price | 30c | 869$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.81 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…62b8backed Price | 9c | 854.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Price | 7c | 701.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e4…fd34backed Price | 9c | 650$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Price | 10c | 528.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…b643backed Price | 9c | 520.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Price | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Price | 8c | 490$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Price | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Price | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Price | 12c | 301.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Price | 8c | 279.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…0a46backed Price | 9c | 266.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Price | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Price | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Price | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…50ddbacked Price | 14c | 220.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Price | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Price | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…971ebacked Price | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…6960backed Price | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…a804backed Price | 7c | 138.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Price | 8c | 127.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Price | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Price | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…ef28backed Price | 17c | 120.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Price | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…38e1backed Price | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Price | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Smith | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 317: Price vs. Smith this page
- UFC 317: Amil vs. DelgadoDelgado won
- UFC 317: Araujo vs. CortezCortez won
- UFC 317: Dariush vs. MoicanoDariush won
- UFC 317: Diniz vs. Hines Diniz won
- UFC 317: Hermansson vs. RodriguesRodrigues won
- UFC 317: McKinney vs. BorshchevMcKinney won
- UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-FrancePantoja won
- UFC 317: Royval vs. VanVan won
- UFC 317: Talbott vs. LimaTalbott won
- UFC 317: Topuria vs. OliveiraTopuria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.