TailMyPicks
Market

UFC · resolved market

UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dariushof Dariush, Moicano
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,019,433
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,075,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,019,433 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9708…925bbacked Moicano51c663,007$335,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335,683.1933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Dariush52c201,005$105,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,477.533751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Dariush49c200,000$98,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,0007853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Dariush51c73,902$37,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,212.0322259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Dariush50c55,555$27,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,777.52548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Dariush50c45,000$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,599.992653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Moicano50c39,530$19,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,837.1313039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Dariush50c34,000$17,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,86016049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Dariush48c28,998$14,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,957.7814857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Moicano50c26,864$13,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,438.391643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Dariush50c20,000$9,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0503259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Dariush50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Dariush43c17,907$7,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,237.810447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Dariush49c17,487$8,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,929.982958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Dariush49c14,200$6,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,28437152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Dariush49c13,635$6,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,944.7336745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Moicano50c13,290$6,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6453740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Dariush49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1002948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Moicano50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Dariush49c9,928$4,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,085.2423537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Moicano49c8,396$4,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,117.9835253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Dariush63c8,364$5,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,118.641533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Moicano50c7,134$3,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,578.7714929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Dariush57c6,942$3,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,950.43933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Moicano48c5,997$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.497233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cbd…6355backed Moicano53c5,293$2,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Dariush49c4,328$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.254934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Moicano52c4,261$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.6454056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Dariush49c4,103$2,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.311457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Dariush50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0004742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Dariush49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04013453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Moicano50c3,974$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9876645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Dariush51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.575244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Dariush47c3,690$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.278348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Dariush50c3,535$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.612262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Dariush66c3,476$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.796051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed Moicano50c3,440$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Dariush50c3,083$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.710443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Dariush49c3,032$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.812751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Dariush51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4701675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Dariush66c2,880$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.99336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Dariush49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2756248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Moicano59c2,500$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48020954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Moicano51c2,441$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.473458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Dariush50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2001770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Dariush48c2,200$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Dariush48c2,169$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.8433253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Dariush41c2,072$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.0411540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Moicano50c2,030$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed Moicano50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+75.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa9…b9bbbacked Moicano50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Moicano50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29bf…25b0backed Moicano50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Dariush49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0206050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8082…b212backed Dariush50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Dariush51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.787653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d8…012abacked Dariush51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.783745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbb…ec2abacked Moicano51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15bc…0fd1backed Moicano51c1,949$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7225…293abacked Dariush51c1,928$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Moicano12c1,859$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.114530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Dariush51c1,738$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.2439959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Moicano52c1,666$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.3225251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Moicano55c1,567$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.3428143.1%121 W · 160 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Dariush49c1,558$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.4418145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Moicano50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dariush49c1,472$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.4218453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Dariush69c1,469$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.2726552.1%138 W · 127 L+23.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Dariush50c1,450$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Moicano46c1,302$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.838835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Dariush49c1,302$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.3613953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Dariush51c1,292$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.1942042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Moicano55c1,231$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.05540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0688…d67dbacked Moicano52c1,154$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc633…b4e7backed Moicano53c1,107$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.513831.6%12 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Moicano49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4904042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Dariush51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4906349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Dariush48c999.99$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5195536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Moicano13c960.1$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.65632.1%18 W · 38 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Dariush48c902.55$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.3816851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Dariush71c900$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2611675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Moicano51c880$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.810452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Moicano50c878$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…7465backed Moicano46c825$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.451060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Dariush48c815.14$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.5521044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Dariush48c799.97$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.983171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbfae…1b31backed Moicano5c740$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fcb…f91abacked Moicano52c726.92$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3783246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Moicano67c718.1$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.292564%16 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c0…21febacked Moicano50c699.94$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Moicano52c690.33$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.972254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Dariush47c649.96$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.488256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Moicano37c635.68$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2352540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Dariush66c609.99$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.912055.8%67 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd703…fb35backed Moicano53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c77…a901backed Dariush51c589$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.611723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Dariush51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2435764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Dariush63c578.71$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3237854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Dariush51c568.55$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.595044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Moicano53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.