TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa362…f906

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
280
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Mls, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Mls at 56 out of 100; worst CS2 at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2025, EDT7342.5%31 W · 42 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 73 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$4,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,040.4
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Galatasaray end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$29.5
Will Manchester City vs. Napoli end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$59.51
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,471Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,471.34
Will Monaco win on 2025-09-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$880Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$395.36
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-09-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,651Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,650.6
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$4,164Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,163.59
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$4,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,210.11
Will Benfica win on 2025-08-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$499.2
Will Benfica vs. Fenerbahçe end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$60.71
Will FC Kopenhagen vs. FC Basel end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$57.04
Will Sturm Graz vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$117
Will FK Crvena Zvezda vs. Pafos FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,798Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT+26.7%+$480.4
Will FK Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-08-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$512Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$511.68
Will Glasgow Rangers win on 2025-08-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$36.96
Will Glasgow Rangers vs. Club Brugge end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$35.1
Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.5
Will Benfica vs. Nice end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Nice win on 2025-08-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Benfica win on 2025-08-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$805Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$804.5
Will Red Star Belgrade vs. Lech Poznan end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$225.94
Will FK Qarabag win on 2025-08-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$432
FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. PSG – Both Teams To Score?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$161.88
FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. PSG – To Lift Trophy backed Chelsea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$499.31
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) backed Bayern · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$298.85
Showing 25 of 73 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 19, 2025, EDT3951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)backed New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,102Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$977.6
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)backed Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$509Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$509.11
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$232
Dodgers vs. Giantsbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$292.56
Reds vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,355Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$1,064.8
Braves vs. Cubsbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+256.7%+$978.78
Mariners vs. Raysbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$578Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$577.8
Blue Jays vs. Redsbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$6,598Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$4,977.68
Braves vs. Cubsbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.26
Cubs vs. Rockiesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$973
Marlins vs. Metsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$290.16
Pirates vs. Red Soxbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,678Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$1,072.5
Yankees vs. White Soxbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,751Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$1,028.6
Dodgers vs. Rockiesbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13,859Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$7,462.7
Blue Jays vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$635Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$992.45
Nationals vs. Royalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.3
Pirates vs. Brewersbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.1
White Sox vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$17
Rangers vs. Marinersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+37%+$63.45
Twins vs. Guardiansbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$63
Yankees vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$125.24
Braves vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,059Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,058.55
Pirates vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.4
Red Sox vs. Twinsbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,279Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+49.2%+$1,121.15
Phillies vs. White Soxbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$259.16
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Sep 20, 2025, EDT2857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United vs. Chelsea end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,006Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$353.6
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$120
Will Liverpool vs. Everton end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+25%+$72
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$4,142Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,141.88
Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,148Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$641.7
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$10,413Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10,413.25
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$5,712Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$7,887.53
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$5,114Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+89.4%+$4,574.18
Will Brighton win on 2025-08-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10,899Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+36.8%+$4,010.2
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+81.6%+$247.1
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$4,011Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,011.3
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$6,530Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,530.16
Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$735Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$245
Will Fulham vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$449.92
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,346Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$604.5
Will Wolves win on 2025-08-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$874Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$246.38
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$6,908Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$13,409.22
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$8,223Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,222.89
Will Leeds United vs. Everton end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,866Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$1,579.05
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$93.07
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,420Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,420.33
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10,256Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+127.5%+$13,080.04
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$5,502Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,501.57
Will Fulham win on 2025-08-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$94.07
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 5, 2025, EDT2748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$125.05
US Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osakabacked Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.1
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$6,431Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,430.61
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Beatriz Haddad Maiabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$439Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$138.72
US Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Karolina Muchovabacked Kostyuk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$191.99
US Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Jaume Munarbacked Munar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.1
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Cori Gauffbacked Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.44
US Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatekbacked Alexandrova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.08
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Andrey Rublevbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$348.7
US Open: Elena Rybakina vs Marketa Vondrousovabacked Vondrousova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$239.36
US Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Taylor Townsendbacked Townsend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$343.64
ATP Toronto – Shelton vs. Fritzbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$172.3
ATP Toronto – Cobolli vs. Marozsanbacked Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$72
ATP Toronto – Medvedev vs. Popyrinbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$228.7
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$384.03
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$287.64
Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$889Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+47.7%+$424.29
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Djokovic backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$209.28
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Shelton backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13,337Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+45.5%+$6,064.31
Wimbledon: Andreeva vs. Bencic (W) backed Bencic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$636Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$1,416.57
Wimbledon: Swiatek vs. Samsonova (W) backed Samsonova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$632Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$632.06
Wimbledon: Anisimova vs. Pavlyuchenkovabacked Pavlyuchenkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.52
Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Khachanovbacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.96
Wimbledon: Noskova vs. Anisimova (W) backed Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$283.37
Wimbledon: Sierra vs. Siegemund (W)backed Siegemund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$47.45
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT2740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-39.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
CS2 — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,256Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+100.2%+$3,261.29
BLAST Open: MOUZ vs. M80backed M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,127Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,126.72
BLAST Open: Spirit vs. G2backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,800
Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$186.3
EWC Cs2: The MongolZ vs. Vitalitybacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.48
EWC Cs2: Falcons vs. MOUZbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$583.2
EWC Cs2: HEROIC vs. Aurorabacked HEROIC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$415.68
EWC Cs2: MOUZ vs. Virtus.probacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,439Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$1,086
EWC Cs2: G2 vs. Falconsbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.52
EWC Cs2: FaZe vs. Aurorabacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,385Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,385.08
EWC Cs2: GamerLegion vs. The MongolZbacked The MongolZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$9,276Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT+33%+$3,065.57
BLAST Bounty: MOUZ vs. Astralisbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,088Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$812
BLAST Bounty: HEROIC vs. Aurorabacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$39
BLAST Bounty: Liquid vs. FURIAbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,879Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,878.91
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. MOUZbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,396Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,395.64
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. FURIAbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$781Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$781
IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincerebacked The MongolZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,976Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,975.62
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. Spiritbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
IEM Cologne: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. Natus Vincerebacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$655Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$401.28
FISSURE Playground 1: GamerLegion vs. SAWbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$689Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$309.41
Will The MongolZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$253.28
BLAST.tv Austin Major: paiN vs. The MongolZbacked The MongolZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+46.4%+$216.55
BLAST.tv Austin Major: MOUZ vs. Vitalitybacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$277.2
BLAST.tv Austin Major: FaZe vs. The MongolZbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,164.94
BLAST.tv Austin Major: NAVI vs. Vitalitybacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+25%+$135
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT1866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
League of Legends: Anyone's Legend vs. FunPlus Phoenixbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$696Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$504
IEM Cologne: FaZe vs. Aurorabacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,131Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$723.06
League of Legends: AG.AL vs. Gen.Gbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$176.3
League of Legends: G2 vs. T1backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$870Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$274.8
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. G2backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$14,914Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,914.38
League of Legends: Hanwha Life vs. AG.ALbacked Hanwha Life · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,440
League of Legends: Movistar KOI vs. CTBC Flying Oysterbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$582Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT+100%+$581.65
League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. Cloud9backed FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$531Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+68.2%+$362.24
League of Legends: G2 vs. FURIAbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,545Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$1,144.05
League of Legends: Movistar KOI vs. GAMbacked GAM · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$192.03
Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$169.83
Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,415Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,415.25
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legendbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$138.6
MSI Playoffs: Bilibili Gaming vs. Anyone's Legendbacked Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,229Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$1,001.3
MSI Playoffs: Gen.G vs. T1backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$90.48
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Bilibili Gamingbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$403.76
MSI Playoffs: CTBC Flying Oyster vs. Movistar KOIbacked CTBC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,383Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+69.9%+$966.89
MSI Playoffs: G2 Esports vs. FlyQuestbacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,710Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+92.1%+$2,496.56
All 18 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 15, 2025, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Falcons vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,050
Panthers vs. Cardinalsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$468
Patriots vs. Dolphinsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$8,100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$9,900
Commanders vs. Packers: O/U 48.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$9,555Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,554.94
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$9,029Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,028.76
Titans vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,383Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$367.5
Buccaneers vs. Falconsbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$8,448Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$8,116.36
Bengals vs. Brownsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,015Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$477.76
Chiefs vs. Chargersbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$610
Cowboys vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,783Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$717.5
Spread: Eagles (-8.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$7,955Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,954.56
All 11 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 23, 2025, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$4,682Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,682.25
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$5,022Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,022.06
Will Alaves win on 2025-09-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$120.13
Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,389Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,388.71
Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+45%+$223.41
Will Valencia win on 2025-08-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$966Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$966.28
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$4,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,080.17
Will Villarreal win on 2025-08-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$265.29
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,071Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,071.39
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,496Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,496.18
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-08-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.42
All 11 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sun vs Valkyriesbacked Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$788Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$235.29
Dream vs Wingsbacked Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,538Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$983.18
Liberty vs Lynxbacked Liberty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$215.46
Valkyries vs Dreambacked Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,806Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,805.67
Dream vs Skybacked Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,287Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$363
Aces vs Mysticsbacked Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$853Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$568.8
Liberty vs Stormbacked Liberty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$462Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$462
All 7 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Aug 28, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+61.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Mls — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Sep 20, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Sep 11, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs. Team Falconsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,013Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+71.5%+$724.96
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. HEROICbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$864Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+28.6%+$247.25
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs. Natus Vincerebacked Team Tidebound · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$55.1
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Aug 30, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win on 2025-08-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.38
Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$2,356Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,355.55
Will Inter win on 2025-08-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$3,288Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,288.07
All 3 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Suns vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,486Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+36.2%+$538.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.