TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Falcons vs. Vikings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Falconsof Falcons, Vikings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,601,225
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,717,244

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,601,225 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 507 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Falcons39c224,624$88,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136,268.8441851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Vikings53c163,987$87,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,199.951915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39fe…41d1backed Falcons40c113,568$45,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,140.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Vikings60c113,058$67,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,834.987554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Vikings56c84,950$47,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,922.486248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x759b…2ab3backed Vikings58c69,335$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,0002259.1%13 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+246.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa983…46a3backed Falcons43c61,181$26,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,981.31764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Falcons39c60,000$23,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,599.9510566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Vikings61c44,909$27,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,361.8317454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Vikings61c40,000$24,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,40031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Falcons36c38,585$13,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,736.673548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Falcons47c35,752$16,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,000.2620634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Falcons71c35,250$24,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,3001681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Vikings61c32,415$19,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,798.5744652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Falcons36c30,571$11,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,565.4416836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Vikings61c29,727$18,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,133.742055%11 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Vikings52c29,154$15,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,185.5914351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06b2…9f35backed Vikings64c26,000$16,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,6401662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Falcons64c24,824$15,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,871.4114349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Vikings34c21,135$7,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,240.0612138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Vikings41c20,832$8,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,523.6660049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Falcons46c20,120$9,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,888.874436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Falcons44c20,000$8,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,25011755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Vikings61c20,000$12,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,199.973036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Vikings45c16,155$7,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,331.1347738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Vikings62c16,129$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Vikings43c14,240$6,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,086.42626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Vikings59c13,290$7,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,864.1530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Falcons51c12,764$6,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.4122548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Falcons40c11,288$4,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,723.9217348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Vikings46c10,442$4,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,784.0130043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Falcons39c10,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,1007042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Falcons38c10,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,199.9612144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Falcons53c9,818$5,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,604.913447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+112.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Falcons38c9,063$3,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,595.9827339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Vikings65c8,725$5,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,652.0953348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Falcons37c8,015$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,045.1924351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Falcons51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9205560%33 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd6e…b233backed Falcons40c7,611$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,566.431533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb61…6d7bbacked Falcons40c7,086$2,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,251.471050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Falcons49c6,168$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.7461148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Vikings47c5,690$2,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,674.23450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Falcons63c5,639$3,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.5824551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x565b…fa9bbacked Vikings1c5,562$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.624673.9%34 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Falcons39c5,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,05035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Falcons36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20034349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Falcons34c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30016036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Vikings61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0501145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Falcons38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.9717647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed Vikings50c4,926$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,486.915330.2%16 W · 37 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2fb7…63afbacked Vikings61c4,686$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f98…fcbabacked Vikings61c4,541$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Vikings46c4,357$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.7614445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aaf…114dbacked Vikings46c4,280$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.971127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-51.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0f0…60dabacked Vikings61c3,976$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.361637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Falcons55c3,964$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.5527644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81ea…668bbacked Vikings61c3,649$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.68771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Falcons55c3,594$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,614.3811252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Falcons39c3,577$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.068343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe829…f91cbacked Vikings62c3,548$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Vikings62c3,268$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.2464747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x305e…7d29backed Vikings61c3,267$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9932552%13 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+54.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Vikings45c3,264$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.9619551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Vikings41c3,148$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.6133328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Vikings42c3,081$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.468446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Falcons33c3,000$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.4418435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Vikings42c3,000$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.396544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x991a…2411backed Vikings61c2,987$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.072227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Vikings60c2,963$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.269445.7%43 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Falcons39c2,564$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.14454.5%24 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Falcons39c2,564$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.15250%26 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Vikings61c2,459$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Vikings62c2,419$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x883f…aad2backed Falcons57c2,319$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Falcons36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2803948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Vikings58c2,000$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.13145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Falcons35c2,000$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29223647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Falcons38c2,000$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.9520646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Vikings65c2,000$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.895851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Vikings4c1,978$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2214926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe88e…a7d4backed Falcons44c1,897$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.48349.4%41 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ec5…b23bbacked Vikings50c1,883$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.242445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Falcons40c1,875$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1252744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Vikings52c1,824$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.294129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-42%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Vikings2c1,731$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.714311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Vikings59c1,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Vikings41c1,696$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.636550.8%33 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66d1…f3a9backed Vikings61c1,639$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001450%7 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb343…7cdcbacked Vikings61c1,639$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Vikings64c1,638$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.8639754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Vikings13c1,636$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20914215.5%22 W · 120 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked Vikings36c1,570$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.2220733.8%70 W · 137 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Falcons33c1,535$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.368946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a77…7926backed Falcons65c1,515$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.331040%4 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Vikings64c1,500$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9604551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Falcons38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.9519543.6%85 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b8…60ddbacked Vikings39c1,448$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.69922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89cd…f03bbacked Vikings62c1,428$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.857456.8%42 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…8eaabacked Vikings3c1,382$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414918.4%9 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Vikings60c1,336$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.62259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.