NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92d6127fbdfe03c491c2a6bcc01493a27541742a54e970c27664992f2f416a86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Vikings, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa983…46a3backed Falcons | 64c | 29,671$18,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,740.05 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Vikings | 35c | 20,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Falcons | 59c | 8,107$4,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,323.87 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Vikings | 41c | 8,000$3,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Vikings | 38c | 4,503$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.35 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Vikings | 38c | 2,100$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Vikings | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Vikings | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vikings | 39c | 457.05$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.57 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…5897backed Vikings | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Vikings | 44c | 218.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Falcons | 56c | 218.18$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Vikings | 9c | 142.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed Vikings | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8970…14d0backed Falcons | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…2966backed Vikings | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-4.5)this page
- Falcons vs. VikingsFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.