NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9d579fd2608f93492809816ec5cb26ccef6823a586729e22556577904a15b67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Under | 49c | 16,870$8,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,537.84 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,570 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Over | 51c | 6,391$3,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,259.49 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 51c | 6,090$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,078.16 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Over | 51c | 5,684$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,882.04 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,525 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Over | 51c | 4,510$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 49c | 1,314$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.93 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 1,112$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Over | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 48c | 771.58$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.22 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Over | 54c | 715$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Over | 51c | 588.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Over | 51c | 530$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.8 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Under | 52c | 385$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Over | 51c | 295.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…f19bbacked Under | 48c | 284$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Under | 51c | 252$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 49c | 230$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…a1d8backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…55f5backed Over | 50c | 194.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 46c | 164.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 49c | 153$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 145.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Under | 49c | 46.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…9ababacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…7ab8backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…c0ecbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…2966backed Over | 51c | 35.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over | 51c | 34.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5this page
- Falcons vs. VikingsFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Vikings (-4.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.