NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f8c09ea5ae5efd07800026396f05fd9bda1485a8574e119bc5964392b15dd1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Vikings, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa983…46a3backed Falcons | 74c | 20,510$15,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,434.25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Vikings | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Falcons | 54c | 14,617$7,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,723.77 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Vikings | 31c | 11,054$3,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,475.05 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Vikings | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.98 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Falcons | 55c | 9,091$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,090.91 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Vikings | 45c | 7,630$3,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,433.55 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Falcons | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Vikings | 15c | 4,271$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.54 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Vikings | 46c | 3,991$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Falcons | 53c | 3,117$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.08 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Vikings | 47c | 2,553$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Vikings | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Falcons | 55c | 2,182$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.82 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Vikings | 23c | 1,819$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.46 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Falcons | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Vikings | 25c | 1,385$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.08 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Vikings | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Falcons | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Vikings | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…5897backed Vikings | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…afd7backed Falcons | 59c | 423.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.06 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Vikings | 47c | 414.23$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.69 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…a74dbacked Falcons | 55c | 407.27$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.27 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Vikings | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…7becbacked Vikings | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…2a13backed Falcons | 55c | 221.82$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Vikings | 45c | 217.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked Vikings | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…9dc3backed Vikings | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Falcons | 54c | 183.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Vikings | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Falcons | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…8490backed Vikings | 25c | 126$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed Vikings | 38c | 104.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Vikings | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…35a9backed Falcons | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Vikings | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Falcons | 55c | 56.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Falcons | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Vikings | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Falcons | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Vikings | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Falcons | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Vikings | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Vikings | 47c | 40.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Falcons | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…2500backed Falcons | 55c | 39.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…d7eabacked Falcons | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cb…8e37backed Vikings | 39c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f28…a1b3backed Vikings | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Vikings | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…925fbacked Falcons | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…94d4backed Falcons | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Falcons | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)this page
- Falcons vs. VikingsFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5Under won
- Falcons vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Vikings (-4.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.