CS2 · resolved market
BLAST Bounty: HEROIC vs. Aurora
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x775eee2e73cb972bcf69686c0ba0f75d078c5196e83f4e2deb12fdd8dec7d51e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof HEROIC, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked HEROIC | 25c | 100,000$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Aurora | 75c | 88,803$66,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,227.1 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Aurora | 74c | 8,569$6,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.97 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bd…bf7bbacked Aurora | 75c | 6,545$4,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Aurora | 73c | 5,095$3,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.78 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed HEROIC | 8c | 2,861$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.75 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed HEROIC | 28c | 2,851$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.41 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…a28dbacked HEROIC | 25c | 2,823$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.66 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed HEROIC | 18c | 2,619$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.69 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed HEROIC | 20c | 2,077$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.66 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Aurora | 79c | 2,014$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.05 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed HEROIC | 27c | 1,865$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed HEROIC | 28c | 1,758$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.28 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed HEROIC | 23c | 1,269$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.82 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Aurora | 74c | 1,161$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.85 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Aurora | 72c | 1,100$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked HEROIC | 26c | 1,020$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked HEROIC | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Aurora | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed HEROIC | 14c | 605.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed HEROIC | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed HEROIC | 10c | 549.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed HEROIC | 26c | 546.58$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked HEROIC | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf2…a34fbacked Aurora | 74c | 531.72$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed HEROIC | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked HEROIC | 23c | 468.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked HEROIC | 8c | 427.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked HEROIC | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Aurora | 74c | 378.26$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed HEROIC | 28c | 358.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked HEROIC | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…db1bbacked HEROIC | 28c | 326.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed HEROIC | 26c | 269.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 74c | 172.41$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Aurora | 74c | 167.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed HEROIC | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Aurora | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Aurora | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Aurora | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Aurora | 73c | 136.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed HEROIC | 30c | 102.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Aurora | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…57efbacked HEROIC | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked Aurora | 74c | 97.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…f26ebacked HEROIC | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 162 | 36.4%59 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…4bc4backed HEROIC | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…7fb6backed HEROIC | 28c | 62.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3f…d2e2backed HEROIC | 30c | 50.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked HEROIC | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Aurora | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…445dbacked HEROIC | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa1…c02dbacked Aurora | 74c | 28.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.